Things Are Speeding Up

299: Kamala Harris, Crypto, and The Future of the USA

Jul 24, 2024

Good afternoon everyone.

To the 951 new subscribers we’ve gotten in the last few days — welcome you joined a growing community focused providing two things the legacy media does not:

Concise and relevant information
Based and straightforward takes on what’s happening in the world, markets, and society

The legacy media machine is proving with each passing day that it is unreliable, compromised, and misleading at a time when having accurate and realistic information is the key to forming opinions and ensuring you are best prepared to come out on top.

Today’s post is free for all subs — but if you want to take a look at some of the premium/deep dives I do weekly you can sift through the archive HERE. You can also see some of the popular paid posts from the last two week below:

It’s Black Swan Season Folks

Biden Drop Out Coming (published on July 18th)

As a reminder we in our paid posts we called:

The Trump assassination attempt
The cyber outage we experienced last week
The Joe Biden Drop Out
Kamala Harris’ likely choice of Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, as her VP pick.

More on this today — as the circumstances surrounding Biden’s drop out are bizzare to say the least. There was growing speculation Joe was very ill and even possibly dead for some time on social media given the circumstances surrounding his drop out. it’s still fair to say there was likely some sort of silent coup to push Joe out — we should learn more tonight when he addresses the nation at 8pm ET. Side note — I’m glad Joe is okay and I don’t wish harm on him or anyone else.

A good reminder that psy ops are likely afoot to cause even more confusion online and everyone needs to be level headed in rushing to conclusions — there is a good deal of true misinformation floating around on platform’s like X.

I realize the last few posts have been largely political in nature, and I get it can be a bit much sometimes — but worth noting that everything we normally talk about (society, crypto, markets, business, news, etc.) will all be changed and impacted by what comes next in the US. It will have far reaching implications for the world and countries abroad as well (for my international reader)

One theme I want everyone to think about this week is the perpetual state of deceit and lying that the US media and establishment has pushed for 4 years — it should be more apparent than ever that you’ve been lied to for some time now.

I’m getting really tired of people calling everything a conspiracy — the fact of the matter is you look like foolish saying this in the current environment. Nearly every single fact drop, update, and disclosure we get on these “conspiracies” ends up proving critics dead wrong on a several month lag.

“Conspiracy Theories” or whatever you’d like to call them are more often than not the norm now — you should be skeptical of pretty much everything you’re hearing from this administration and the mainstream media as a default — not the other way around.

See below two of the many examples below. Many of these companies are censoring or editing their websites in real time to try and brush over their historical posts.

Geopolitical Updates

While most attention is focused on the upcoming US Presidential election, the world is moving quick on multiple fronts, preparing for the repercussions of an administration change and tackling surging changes like heightened unrest, terrorism, and spillover from regional conflicts in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip.

The FBI raided and searched the $3.5 million home of Former Aide to NY Gov. Hochul this week - New York Times (InsiderPaper)
Hackers have leaked internal documents from defense company Leidos which is currently one of the biggest IT service providers to the Pentagon and other federal agencies
Rep. Andy Ogles has just introduced articles of impeachment against Vice President and 2024 Presidential candidate Kamala Harris
The Biden administration's ban on noncompete clauses was upheld in court on Tuesday
According to Visegrad24: A Russian suicide drone has struck NATO territory. The drone, targeted Ukrainian port facilities in Izmail but instead made its way across the border into Romania and hit near the village of Plauru. Romania decided scramble its F-16 jet fighters in response
A Russian chef was arrested in Paris over an alleged ‘large scale’ Paris Olympic Games plot — this comes on the heels of concerns of a major terror attack during the games (Guardian)

My thoughts on the direction the election has taken in the past 48 hours:

It’s actually unbelievable that anyone is trying to make the argument that Kamala Harris should be president — it’s disheartening to say the least that so many can just ignore reality and blindly shift their allegiance to someone so unqualified to run a country. I suspect a lot of this is just anti Trump sentiment — the only problem is (and I’ve covered this extensively) they are missing or consciously choosing to ignore that the establishment is manipulating them.

I don’t really know what else could happen that would convince people there are dark forces at work leveraging the Democratic Party as a vessel/trojan horse. Trump was nearly killed — and after the congressional hearing with former head of secret service Cheatle, the new updates coming out of the attempt, and the immediate fuckery re: Biden — it should be completely fucking obvious that the deep state/establishment was involved in what we’ve seen playing out.

Do Americans care that their government is likely complicit in an attempt to kill the top political choice for half the country?

No they’d rather act like a stubborn petulant child and consciously vote for a complete moron to prove a point. What point — I don’t know.

Or worse — as we’ve seen endlessly — they openly condone violence.

This should give you a teaser of what’s to come.

But if they are successful — and I fear they will be, they will finalize the destruction of this country. That’s not hyperbole. I always come back to one of the quotes in Star Wars Revenge of the Sith: "So this is how democracy dies, with thunderous applause".

Lemmings cheering, unknowingly signing off on a dark path for their country that is entirely irreversible should it play out. Again — I’m not claiming the “right” or god forbid Republicans, are without fault. That would be ignorant and disingenuous. But the key difference maker here, that I have highlighted before is that you have such obtuse and clear interference and manipulation of our system by unelected and shadowy organizations and individuals — and people still don’t care. They cannot move off their anti Trump rock to see that, and I believe that’s partially by design.

If Kamala is elected — things will turn up by a factor of 10. She’s not remotely qualified to be VP let alone President — she’s been purposely kept out of the public eye for years now. Various outlets are reporting she’s had a 92% staff turnover during her first 3 years as VP. It came out today that the Harris campaign is considering renowned Transportation Sec. Pete Buttigieg as a possible running mate (it literally just keeps getting worse).

Rest assured she will further the marxist agenda in the US. She has said on record she supports healthcare and concessions for ILLEGAL migrants of which we now have 10M+ thanks to this admin’s border policy.

She is already calling for similar guns laws to Australia (you know the country that locked up Covid dissidents in camps) including gun confiscation, red flag laws, and national registries (which probably already exist if we’re being honest).

Read the room guys.

If the labeling of political opposition and right wingers as extremists, racists, and potential terrorist threats over the past several years wasn’t enough — they will now attempt to come for your last physical safeguard against tyranny.

And it might surprise people but yeah — that’s what the 2nd amendment was intended for — not duck hunting.

Shocking I know.

They wouldn’t need to do that if people believed the system and election process was legitimate — but over half of the country doesn’t and hasn’t since the 2020 election. And they shouldn’t — the Trump attempt confirms several things in my mind, chief among them — the 2020 election was rigged. If they’re willing to try and kill him on live TV, they would gladly rig an election.

Yeah but Andy where’s the admission where’s the eViDenCe.

How many massive things do you need to be misled about and then find out they were actually lies/ not the truth months later to understand this is par for the course?

Covid origin
Treatments for Covid
Epstein
Vaccines
Why we’re in Ukraine
Nordstream
Russiagate
Hunters laptop
“There’s no border crisis”
Joe Biden’s health state (mainstream media literally called anyone suggesting Joe was frail or not fit as a “conspiracy theorist”)

And to be clear — there was proof it was rigged, despite it being ruthlessly “fact checked” and suppressed by big tech — countless videos showed ballot dumping, Georgia is now investigating fraud officially, and the Dominion voting machines (that we were confidently told don’t have internet connection) went down in Maricopa County, Arizona during the little CrowdStrike “outage” last week. You think they just leave obvious clues laying around for people to find?

People are just too naïve. Maybe they don’t WANT to admit this type of thing is possible.

People need to see through the veil of constant lies and propaganda because it’s getting laughable at this point how the grift just keeps on going. Nobody said jack about Kamala Harris for 4 years — the Dems consciously hid her and limited her appearances because she was that unlikeable - but now all of the sudden she’s the messiah? It’s pathetic and more importantly dangerous.

You see Kamala going toe to toe with Xi or Putin? Please.

They have tried every single thing they can to stop Donald Trump. Lawfare, election rigging, defamation, smearing, rigged court systems, and now, simply killing him and they’ve all failed.

This should give you a clear sense of just how much they fear him and how high the stakes are if they lose. I’m not explicitly talking bout just Democrat — this is the military industrial complex, the deep state, and those with societal and economic interests counter to Trump’s agenda.

They are telegraphing their vulnerabilities for you to see. Everyone knows in business you can’t be needy. You can’t be desperate, you can’t indicate to your competition or prospects EXACTLY what you want or don’t want or you get torched. They are doing JUST that by obsessing about Trump for 4+ years and trying so desperately to stop him. But they WAnT demoCracY Andy! Yeah sure — that’s why they’re shitcanned Joe and then pushed in a candidate nobody wanted or voted for without asking anyone.

They cannot lose. It would mean giving up too much power, influence, and control of the route this country is heading down — which invariably ends up with them getting richer and more powerful.

Just yesterday after Cheatle resigned from her role at Secret Service Director — the Secret service recommended Trump stop having outdoor rallies because the threat is high.

I have a better idea — how about you idiots do your fucking jobs?

If this isn’t a veiled threat — it’s an admittance of mediocrity at best.

Some Americans are slow to really what happened at the Donald Trump rally in Butler, PA is nearly impossible without the involvement of others. That realization should factor into your assessment of where we are as a country.

My personal opinion — there is zero chance Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump in a free and fair election (key adjectives).

It should be a landslide, Kamala Harris had incredibly low likability all throughout the Biden administration — but something tells me (and the media is already manifesting this with propoganda) it will be close — close enough to meddle with.

That or some sort of large black swan takes place — making the election more difficult to carry out or finalize — but more on that later this week.

Relevant Market Updates

The election in November will be key in shaping markets in the upcoming months — for now we are seeing crypto have some brief surges but still hesitant to really run. Equities had a predictable smaller correction with select industries that would benefit from a Trump presidency running a bit. The S&P and Nasdaq re getting hammered a bit today — in the short term I may goof around with some QQQ options (calls).

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New Home Sales came in — 617K, Expected 640K
Kamala Harris has decided not to speak at the Bitcoin conference, per CEO David Bailey (Unusual Whales)
Spot Ethereum ETF trading volumes surpassed $1 billion USD on the first day of trading
Tesla's 2Q profit fell 45% to around $1.48 billion as sales drop despite recent price cuts and low-interest loans
Senate Democrats are now pushing for a vote on the ban that will be prohibiting stock trading for active members of Congress before the November 2024 election.
1,026 job cuts announced in Texas today by state regulators. John Deere and Merck have begun layoffs and Intel is reportedly planning on headcount reduction in the coming months (MacroEdge)
OpenAI is projected to lose $5 billion this year, with significant expenses on cloud computing and model training, per the Information (Unusual Whales)

Firearms/Ammo Plays Update

Quick update on my plays in gun/ammo stock options that I detailed a few editions ago:

Right now my two primary plays are SWBI 0.00%↑ and POWW 0.00%↑ though it may be worth looking at RGR 0.00%↑ and VSTO 0.00%↑ as well.

SWBI 12/20/2024 17.00 C - up 80% on these currently — I cut half of them at +250% the day after the Trump attempt

SWBI 12/20/2024 30.00 C - Up 70% on these

POWW 10/18/2024 5.00 C - Don 34% on these — super cheap to buy though so happy to wait and see what happens — a larger geopolitical conflict would likely boost this play

If it looks like Harris is gaining momentum closer to the election I expect these plays to work out very well — Kamala said in a recent speech this week "We will finally pass red flag laws, universal background checks, and an assault weapons ban”.

You can expect panic buying if it looks like she could actually win. The other catalyst here would be BLM/2020 type riots or social unrest leading up to the election or shortly after. Not super unlikely considering the violent protests happening outside the US capitol today as a result of Netanyahu’s congressional address.

Crypto Updates

The Ethereum ETFs went live this week and most crypto traders and investors are looking for signs of strength as a clue that the best of the bull market may still be on the horizon. Trading volume surpassed $1B on the first day — as of 3pm ET on Wednesday (the second day) we’ve passed $700M. These are good numbers.

Of this $1 billion on the first day, there was a net inflow of $106.7 million according to a tracker from SoSoValue — worth noting most of the outflows came from Grayscale's Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which saw over $483 million in outflow (CoinDesk).

I wouldn’t read too much into the first several days of activity here, although it’s a decent start— the Bitcoin ETF led to a drawdown immediately after, we all know what happened shortly after the launches. This will take time to play out. If anything you have some extra time to accumulate ETH if you wish before a potential run up happens closer to the end of Summer/the Fall.

Institutions are buying guys.

You cannot expect this to be an easy play for everyone and for every person who dabbles to get wealthy.

I have been holding for years.

This takes patience — almost a psychotic amount.

My strategy right now largely remains the same. Long BTC, adding ETH (sentiment is so bad it’s funny), long Chainlink, long GRT, long FIL, long PAC, long Blast, and looking to add a few bags of alts (AAVE, SOL) in the coming weeks if we get a clear indication we are going to run higher. Keep it simple, ignore the FUD, and focus on accumulating what you want — splitting your holdings between cold storage and what you want to have on exchanges.

Remember if you are new to crypto and want to get involved quickly you can use my code at the end of the newsletter to get free Bitcoin through Gemini.

More on some specific crypto themes next week — including alts I am buying soon.

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I will see you guys tomorrow or Friday morning for another paid post re: some risk scenarios at home and in the world that I see as very likely in the next 4 or 5 months. You better hope we somehow stop predicting these things accurately because many of them will be highly disruptive to markets and society here in the US.

If you still think that’s “doom posting” or “alarmism” reconsider please — the situation in the US and around the world is getting increasingly unstable.

FBI Director Christopher Wray announced today that the FBI and other agencies are increasingly concerned about an upcoming coordinated foreign terrorist attack in the United States. Streets in NYC were shut down on Wednesday after a confirmed pipe bomb was discovered by the NYPD — a bomb squad was deployed immediately.

We will cover all of these updates and more in the next edition of Arb Letter for paid subs.

Ona more positive note try to enjoy the week. Summer is moving quick — take that vacation, get outside, and don’t stress too much about work. In the grand scheme of things you won’t be thinking about work on your deathbed.

See yall later this week.

ARB Letter