Size Lord French Trader Bets $28M

340: Election Updates, Media Meltdown, Markets

Afternoon kings and lords.

I dropped Episode 9 of the Risk On Podcast earlier today — decided to try something new — in this episode I polled dozens of followers and subscribers to get their take on where the 2024 Presidential Election stands. I asked them where they were from, how old, who they were voting for and why, as well as who they think is going to win the election.

You can listen below on Spotify — I will have it up on Youtube later today.

If you want to see how people are thinking and where recent betting markets and polls are putting the race check it out.

Couple key findings, keeping in my mind my demographic is mostly males aged 18-35 in major global cities.

• Trump was overwhelmingly supported

• Abortion seems to be a major issue for Democratic voters

• The border came up on multiple occasions

• Predictions on the outcome of the election are mixed

• Respondents cited it, and Rasmussen recently put out an updated statistic (below) but many voters, not just right leaning ones, are concerned about cheating and fraud. A majority (55%) of Democrats think the cheat is coming. They are joined by 58% of Independents and 83% of Republicans (Rasmussen)

---

Financial Markets

The stock market this week has experienced a pullback after recent highs. Treasury yields rose to multi-month peaks, which weighed on major indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow. Earnings reports from big tech companies and other major sectors are key market drivers, with mixed results contributing to uncertainty.

While some sectors, such as finance and utilities, performed well, others, like consumer durables and energy, lagged. Positive economic data and rising bond yields are influencing market sentiment, as investors reassess the risk of recession.

• Total US debt $35.802 Trillion, a $30BN increase in one day and new all-time high (ZeroHedge)

• Boeing reported a Q3 loss of $6.2 billion on Wednesday

• 10 Year yields hit 4.25% this week, the highest since July

• The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is back above 7% despite the Fed’s cut

• A Size Lord French trader bet over $28 million on Trump to win the election using 4 Polymarket accounts according to CNBC. Absolute maniac, wonder if he ends up printing

• Tesla revealed this week that none of their $763,120,000 Bitcoin was sold in Q3 2024 (WatcherGuru)

• ETH/BTC looks absolutely awful right now — might be time to nibble

• Taco Bell, KFC and Pizza Hut have pulled onions from some restaurants over E. coli outbreaks reported at MCD 0.00%↑ McDonald’s (Unusual Whales)

Crypto has sold off yet again along with a good amount of equities — whether this is because of the uncertainty around the election or fear about entrenched inflation who knows. Our beloved $ZYN is down a bit — but I will take this opportunity to add. Solana is doing well relative to the rest of the market. Chainlink continues to look okay due to major news last week about updated partnerships with major institutions.

Paul Tudor Jones this week stated that he is long Bitcoin, Gold, and commodities and that inflation is his main focus at the moment. Silver also has outperformed this year.

MicroStrategy's MSTR 0.00%↑ stock performed exceptionally well this week, hitting a new 52-week high of $230.99 by October 24, 2024. The stock has continued its strong upward trend, largely fueled by the company's significant Bitcoin holdings and rising institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.

The stock's rise has been supported by bullish sentiment from analysts, many of whom have increased their price targets, with some predicting further gains.

Created with TradingView

The stock also saw positive momentum as investors anticipated the company's earnings report, which is due at the end of the month. Analysts continue to recommend the stock as a "strong buy," expecting further growth in the near future.

This week, mortgage rates remained elevated, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage hovering around 7%.

Despite recent predictions of a slight decrease, rates have stayed high, driven by persistent inflationary pressures and a stronger-than-expected labor market.

In the real estate market, home prices have shown mixed movement, with some areas experiencing slight price declines while others maintain stable or rising prices. Inventory levels have increased, providing more options for buyers, but higher borrowing costs continue to dampen affordability for many potential homeowners.

---

Geopolitics/Election

Lots going on around the world but the bulk of attention this week is being given to the intensifying US election.

New betting apps like Poly Market and Kalshi are leaving people wondering just how predictive the betting markets might be — Trump currently holds leads on both platforms with some sizeable bets being laid down all week.

• Donald Trump now leads in all swing states in the 2024 election with a 60% chance of winning the election on Kalshi (Kobeissi Letter/Kalshi)

• Bill Ackman joined CNBC this week to talk about why he is supporting Trump, pretty entertaining segment

• 84% of Americans support showing ID to vote, while 83% are in favor of requiring proof of citizenship for voting, according to recent Gallup polling

• The situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, with increasing casualties and international calls for a ceasefire. Israel has expressed concern that a ceasefire would allow Hamas to regroup and continue its attacks, complicating diplomatic efforts to broker peace.

• The upcoming U.S. election is expected to have far-reaching effects on global geopolitics, particularly in relation to U.S. policy towards China, Russia, and NATO. Both candidates' foreign policy positions are being closely scrutinized by international allies and adversaries.

• Former Congressman Adam Kinzinger and Democrat MO Senate nominee Lucas Kunce went shooting this week for a photo-op, and a reporter ended up being shot/injured. Hilarious video if you can find it (reporter was okay) — the guys were shooting steel targets at about 10 yards with tannerite (an explosive) right in front of them on a table

• The war between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of abating, with both nations overstretched but committed to their positions. The U.S. election outcome is seen as a critical factor in shaping future U.S. involvement in the conflict though Biden has signed off on more weapons deals as of late

• Qatar Airways has suspended commercial flights to and from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon (Spectator Index)

• Iran continues to strengthen its position in the Middle East, leveraging its influence in regional conflicts, particularly in relation to the ongoing war in Gaza. This poses challenges for both regional stability and U.S. foreign policy in the region — US intelligence agencies are closely monitoring Iranian threats to the US homeland and forces in the Middle East

• At the UN General Assembly, Secretary-General António Guterres has urged world leaders to show statesmanship to resolve geopolitical deadlocks, warning that humanity is moving "ever closer to a great fracture" due to ongoing conflicts and violations of international law.

This week, The Atlantic published a contentious article by Jeffrey Goldberg titled "Trump: ‘I Need the Kind of Generals That Hitler Had,’" focusing on Donald Trump's admiration for authoritarian leadership styles and his strained relationship with American military officials.

The article includes stories from former officials like John Kelly, Trump's former chief of staff, who recounted disturbing statements made by Trump, including his praise for certain aspects of Hitler’s leadership. The piece claims that Trump expressed frustration over the perceived lack of loyalty from U.S. generals and contrasted this with the loyalty he believed Hitler’s generals demonstrated (sources are not listed).

The article has generated strong backlash, particularly because it relies on anonymous sources, leading critics to draw comparisons to previous unverified stories about Trump. Supporters of Trump argue that without corroboration, the claims are questionable, especially given the timing so close to the election.

On top of that — the article was claiming that Trump disrespected Army Specialist Vanessa Guillén who was killed in the Fort Hood shooting in Texas in 2020. Guillén’s own sister clapped back on Twitter saying this was entirely false.

The other attempt to come after Trump came from The Guardian in an article dropping shortly after the Atlantic piece — in it former model Stacey Williams claims that she went on a walk with Epstein in 1993 by his Upper East Side home and then he took her to see Trump who groped her — only problem? Epstein didn’t move to NY until 1996 lmao. ZeroHedge annihilated this story before it got off the ground on Wednesday.

RFK talked about several of the themes I covered in Risk On this morning in one of his recent addresses — namely the DOD directive that authorizes violence against US citizens in protests and instances of domestic unrest.

RFK confirms this came from the Democratic party, and it’s one of the reasons he has left. This is a major red flag at face value — doubly so as we approach what could be a contested election in an environment where the media is preparing the left to reject the results of this election.

A review of my prediction for this race:

• I think Kamala will “win” as in, she will be the one certified or able to take power in 2025 after the election

• I think there’s a small chance of a Trump landslide based on evidence and signs we re getting from betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi as well as the early voting data and numbers given by traditional polling sources

• There have already been conversations and comments made by those on the left that there will be a refusal of certification for this election should Trump win

• I think it is unlikely the right wins in a close election

Of course I can and may be wrong — but this is how I view the field.

I simply do not think Trump is allowed to return to the White House.

I know this sounds wild to some — particularly those that maybe aren’t convinced of the fuckery that took place in 2020. But I assure you — this is far from over. While I think Trump certainly has the momentum right now there is a lot more ball left to be played and hundreds of things that could happen.

The left and media is already framing and conditioning half of the country to view this election as fraudulent if Trump wins (my have the tables turned). The comparisons to Hitler and comments made by Kamala re: Trump using them military for personal gain and to go after his opponents, tell you what is coming (ironic given the DOD directive to use the military against civilians).

Remember — better to be safe than sorry. In my opinion everyone should be squared away at a basic level and prepared for black swans and civil unrest. Our 2024 Mega Prepping Guide has crowdsourced all the basics as well as the resources/websites/links to gear and experts on the matter in one place. Don’t sleep on this stuff.

As I cited earlier — according to Rasmussen 55% of Dems think a cheat might be coming. This gives the incumbent administration carte blanche to reject the results on the basis that there was fraud or cheating. Worse — we have cyber warnings from the FBI and other agencies while Israel is about to strike Iran. Iran themselves said any attack on Iran will be blamed on the US.

Pretty convenient with a week and a half until voting. Would be a shame if there was, say, a cyber attack rendering voting results useless…..

Strap in boys and girls — going to be a wild couple of weeks here. I will see you all next week in Arb Letter and on Risk On for Episode 10 where we will be sitting down with Trader Mayne to talk crypto and the future of markets.

Andy

Risk On Podcast

Gemini Crypto Sign Up

Arbitrage Andy Twitter

---

Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.