SBF Guilty, Israel Ramps Up
230: More Domestic Unrest, Markets Rally
Good morning and happy Friday to everyone. Quick markets and global news review today before the weekend — we will be back with several deep dives next week including our interview with the China Experts over at
Been a wild week from the Sam Bankman Fried Trial over the implosion of FTX to developments in the Middle East and concerning updates at home here in the United States.
We’ll cover all of the need to know updates before everyone takes off for the weekend to enjoy the cold weather.
If you missed our deep dives this week you can access them below:
Markets
Stocks saw some relief this week with names within tech pumping and defying many expectations.
The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow all pumped into close on Friday with some names rallying hard — presumably from sentiment regarding unemployment and the suggestion that a Fed rate cut could be coming sooner than expected. The $DXY also softened substantially Friday fueling the pump by stocks as well as select crypto assets.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, above expectations of 3.8%. This indicates a weakening labor market in the US and one of the first times it appears that Jerome Powell’s efforts to fight inflation may be working — he will surely be happy to see this “progress”.
On the ground people are continuing to see more and more employers trimming fat as economic conditions worsen.
Financial giant Block sold $2.42 billion worth of Bitcoin to customers through Cash App in Q3 (Bitcoin Magazine)
US median household income slipped 2.3% last year to $74,580, the third consecutive year that incomes have decreased, per CBS (Unusual Whales)
Total US bankruptcy filings rose 13% in the twelve-month period ending Sept. 30, 2023, per the US Courts
OpenSea has cut half of employees as the CEO announces new direction (TheBlock)
Disney is set to buy full control of Hulu for around $8.6B
Bank of America, Truist, Chase, and Wells Fargo users are reporting issues today with deposits and digital access — widespread outages and disruptions started this morning around 8am ET. Should remind everyone how fragile the current digital system is. A good reminder to hold cash, gold, crypto in cold storage, and other assets that don’t rely on the grid for access.
The international shipping company Maersk has announced plans to layoff 10,000 employees, citing the difficult logistics environment
Hong Kong-based financial services institution @ARTATechFin is collaborating with Chainlink Labs to help bring cross-chain interoperability and transparency to ARTA TechFin’s fund tokens using Chainlink CCIP and Proof of Reserve (Chainlink)
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos is has announced he is leaving Seattle for Miami’
Sam Bankman Fried, the founder and CEO of defunct crypto firm FTX has been found guilty of all seven counts he was charged with including money laundering and fraud.
The sentencing will be in March of next year and SBF will face a maximum sentence of 115 years.
Outside the Manhattan courthouse on Thursday, US Attorney Damian Williams expressed his approval of the jury's verdict, emphasizing the government's uncompromising stance against fraud and corruption.
He remarked, "Individuals like Sam Bankman-Fried may be newcomers, but the nature of such deceit and dishonesty is timeless."
In contrast, Bankman-Fried's legal representative expressed disappointment, stating, "While we respect the jury's decision, we are deeply disheartened by the outcome." Lead defense attorney Mark Cohen added, "Mr. Bankman Fried continues to assert his innocence and will vigorously contest the charges against him."
The sentencing hearing is scheduled for March 28, 2024, with Bankman-Fried potentially facing a maximum sentence of 110 years in prison (CNN).
Right now in markets I am mostly sitting on my hands with the exception of the following — all added within the last several days:
Equities
SWBI 0.00%↑ OLN 0.00%↑ POWW 0.00%↑ Call Options with January expiration
This is one of my classic gun/ammo stock plays that attempts to take advantage of seasonality as well as the heightened chances of domestic conflict within the US which generally drives guns and ammo sales much higher.
Think that is all but guaranteed with political unrest ahead of the election and the growing instances of terrorism and mass shooting events we have seen so far in 2023.
Crypto
$BTC
$ETH
I think we are the on verge of a larger sustained rally that baffles economists and professional money managers alike.
The market has been volatile all year and most have been waiting for one big god dump or recession indicator — but if you’ve simply held many of these positions and added on the worst days — you’re probably up — certainly the case in crypto.
Wile the full effects of continued layoffs and cutting will take a few months to be felt — if the Fed begins cutting rates in 2024 and a war or other conflict induces money printer sentiment again, we may rally much higher.
Food for thought.
Michael Saylor the Bitcoin size lord and Executive director of Microstrategy — announced this week the company has added even more Bitcoin to the balance sheet and intends to add more in the coming months.
You can see how BTC has fared towards other assets below.
Pretty illuminating stuff.
Global News
The US continues to sign off on additional aid bills to both Israel and Ukraine conditions as home continue to deteriorate.
More hints continue to emerge that the current US military recruiting crisis is worsening — not only have their been a slew of commercials hitting TV’s during and after major events like Football games, but according to Lt. Gen. Douglas Stitt recently orders came after a breakdown in how the Army tracks how many recruiters it has coming through the pipeline along with retention of existing ones — to shift efforts towards generating MORE recruiters:
"Without warning, hundreds of noncommissioned officers were ordered via email to report to the recruiting school at Fort Knox, Kentucky, in less than a week, with hundreds more set to start at the school in December -- a sudden unexpected move by the Army as the service scrambles to boost its recruiting force by 800 by the end of the year” (Military.com)
This comes right after online speculation by many that the US may be forced to reinstate the draft if a global conflict erupts in the coming months or years that involves Russia, Iran, or China.
U.S. House has just passed a new $14.3 billion Israel emergency aid bill.
U.S. is set to announce another $425 million in additional military aid for Ukraine (VOA)
Iran has announced this week it wants to expel over 5 million Afghans living in country
ICE arrested an African illegal immigrant, who is wanted in Senegal for terrorist offenses and who was released into US
A Jordanian national was arrested in Houston allegedly planning attack on Jews
The U.S. military is flying drones over Gaza in support of "hostage recovery" efforts, says the Pentagon
Netanyahu has rejected a ‘temporary truce’ in Gaza without hostage releases proceeding
Chinese warplanes buzzed a Canadian helicopter over international waters in the South China Sea last weekend and then fired flares at it, Defence Minister Bill Blair said - Reuters
The IDF confirms it has struck an ambulance in Gaza, saying it was being used by Hamas.
The FBI is investigating New York City Mayor Eric Adams' 2021 election campaign for corruption on whether they conspired with the Turkish government to receive illegal donations (@collinrugg)
The Supreme Court has granted the cert petitions in a lawsuit challenging the federal bump stock ban and a First Amendment lawsuit involving the NRA's speech
Rep. James Comer said Friday the Bidens will be subpoenaed within the next few days
Zelensky is currently ‘weighing’ whether or not to hold elections in 2024 according to a Ukrainian minister — wonder if Biden will do the ame once the big show kicks off…..
US Secretary of State Blinken will meet with the foreign ministers of Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar in Amman tomorrow (Spectator Index)
"If we want to search for a battle with complete legitimacy, there is no battle like the fight with the Zionists (...) This is the only war that deserves to be faught."
— Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
Salon Magazine put out an absurd piece this week titled: MAGA and Christian nationalism: Bigger threat to America than Hamas could ever be — proving one of the central themes I talk about here a lot — which is that the establishment and legacy media fear any organized opposition to the current regime in power in DC.
From January 6th soviet-esque trials and imprisonment to the targeting of people by the FBI — this administration and the FBI have been fully weaponized against conservatives in this country.
How many folks on the terror watch list have been missed because of this political farce?
How laughable is it in the aftermath of the horrific and brutal attacks in Israel, the administration and mainstream media continue to display a complete lack of awareness as to where the true threat lies to this country and western powers?
They’d rather politicize the events and use it as an opportunity to once again stigmatize the public against the non existent threat the “far right” poses compared to actual extremists globally. Not to mention the hundreds that have flooded through our open southern border and now reside within the United States.
In the same theme of our deep dive this week covering risk factors and increasing threat levels within the US, there was a security alert at the Duke Power Nuclear Plant after a man rammed into the front gate and tried to hit multiple security guards with several gunshots.
Authorities are currently searching for a white male suspect driving a silver 2002 Toyota Camry.
This marks yet another instance of domestic violence in the US on top of the mass shootings we have seen in recent weeks and the terror plots covered today in the bullet news headlines.
Worth monitoring and staying extra vigilant when in public.
If you want to learn more about the threats facing the country in the coming months check out the deep dives below from the last several weeks.
Capitalizing on Chaos
Enemy At The Gates
I will see you guys next week - enjoy the weekend and stay safe.
What’s I retesting is back in 2000 when we had the dot.com bubble we experienced a terrorist attack (9/11)as well as a Ponzi scheme (Enron). Now we’re experiencing similar conditions
Hey Andy, I'm not going to comment on the unfortunate Hamas-Israel war other than to say what we're being shown/told is not what's really going on, and as someone who indicated he knows about CIA's pressuring of Kennedy to ok a bombing of a Miami cinema and blame it on Cuba to justify "bombing commies", you probably already know this. I'm going to comment on other things you wrote under other titles since I can't comment there. So I'll do it here...
"But it isn’t as simple as just being incredibly good looking like Zoolander."
-- I googled it. It's a comedy starring Ben Stiller. I know you were joking right? Since when is he considered hot?
Also you're examples of Don Draper and James Bond as exemplary of "what women want". These are fictional characters that appeal more to men's imaginations than women's. It would be better for men to start to use real life examples rather than made up characters who are essentially parodies.
"Modern dating and male/female relationships in my personal view has never been more toxic and unnatural."
--- Was it that way for you? I know you said you have a family now, but you are still very young. What was it like? From my perspective, the toxic stuff is played up online but offline and on the ground, there are some good things happening and good connections being made.
"Women are focused on being “girl-bosses”
--- Well, everybody's gotta work. Things are expensive. But the average employee is not a "boss" - male or female. People are just out here doing their best to get by. The "girl boss", like the "alpha chad" is played up online. Don't make too much of it.
"Men are running around like chickens with their heads cut off — eager because of the seemingly common promiscuity displayed by women these days"
--- Again, online. There is no "common promiscuity" offline. There cannot be massive, population wide "common promiscuity" while simultaneously, as you say, "Young men are having less sex than ever before in history. It’s quite troubling for all the homies. A recent Pew Research Center study found that among men under 30 years old, over 60 percent are single. What’s worse — levels of sexual intimacy ACROSS GENDERS seem to have hit a roughly 30-year low (Lei & South, 2021)."
Continuing you write...
"...but also discouraged by the lack of women who have traditional values and will make good moms or wives down the line."
--- The amount of women that would make good moms or wives down the line may more or less work out to be the same amount of men that would make good dads or husbands down the line. They are out there. But something to consider is; do young people today even WANT to become parents? Can they even afford to financially? That's a whole other topic.
"At this point we have women in politics making sexual content online including Virginia legislative candidate Susanna Gibson that broke headlines for having videos on Chaturbate with live webcam''
--- Politicians are known for sex scandals, sometimes even sex crimes. At least this one was just with herself.
"A recent study of OnlyFans demographics found that the average age of users who end up paying for a subscription is between 35 and 44 years old. The OnlyFans platform grows at a rate of 70% per month and has OnlyFans has more than 210 million users according to (EarthWeb/Hyper Local Cloud). It now has over 120 million registered users and has paid out a total of over $5 billion to creators since its inception in 2016 (TechReport)."
--- Are you aware that ONLYFANS isn't just sexual content? You can open up an OF and do anything you like on it - such as cooking lessons or whatever. So those numbers are showing overall, not just sexual content.
"We even have Christian Only Fans influencer like Nita Marie saying the following:“God is guiding me through my OnlyFans career and he said I should continue creating content until my 70s."
--- Maybe she should convert to Islam like the Manosphere's hero and favorite pornographer, Andrew Tate.
Anyway, I maintain that OFFLINE things aren't as "bad" as they appear online. And I'm not one of those who think it's a tragedy that "young people aren't having sex". It used to be that conservatives raised a hue and cry about "young people having sex". Now they seem to be getting riled up over young people NOT having sex. I don't get it. The modern world has become overly obsessed with sex and seeing it as the "primary relationship". In other countries people bond with their close and extended family members and develop deep same sex (or opposite sex) friendships. Being single and sexless doesn't mean being "lonely". And in fact, if you are single, no matter at what age, you are expected to NOT be having sex. So the USA or the west has things really backwards.
And as far as this "high value man" rhetoric goes, the Manosphere gets that wrong also. By their metric a high value man means a high earning man. Yet they will say, "a high value man wants his woman to cook and clean". That right there shows not only are they not value men but they don't even know any. All high value families that I know hire cooks, maids, nannies, gardeners, lawn and pool maintenance, etc. In developing countries you don't even need to be rich to hire regular domestic help, the basic middle class families do it. Here in the USA it's more expensive so it's often not until we reach the upper-middle class that we start hiring, but in no uncertain circumstances is a rich family going to go without it. These men are mid at best and simply don't know any "high value" people.
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