5 Comments
Mar 1, 2022Liked by Arbitrage Andy

From what I’ve seen from sources on the ground in Kiev there is a huge disconnect between reality and what the Western media is putting out. Russia is having their way for the most part, Kharkov and Ukraine’s main Eastern element are all but surrounded. As much as I’d love the West’s narrative to be true it just doesn’t add up. Ukraine is winning but are conscripting every male between 18-60, releasing criminals to serve, asking for negotiations, doesn’t quite make sense. Similarly is the idea that Russia is bogged down, they’ve literally left Ukraine’s electrical grid, water, sewage systems, etc. all intact and functioning, not something you do if you’re looking to crush an enemy or defeat them quickly. It appears that Russia is purposely avoiding civilian conflict as much as possible (within reason for a war zone) as arguable half the country, the East, is on their side, if not at least the 1/3 that makes up the Donbas. Also the whole nuclear threat is ridiculous at this point, we’re supposed to believe Putin and the West are both willing to enter a nuclear war yet we are still paying for Russia’s oil exports, what we’re alright with nuclear fallout but not being cold in the winter, again just doesn’t add up. Overall this is just what I’ve seen/read from various sources, not saying it is all correct by any means, just that the Ukraine is grinding Russia into submission narrative might not be all it’s cracked up to be.

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Mar 1, 2022Liked by Arbitrage Andy

Almost forgot, both China and India abstained from the U.N. vote to condemn Russia’s actions. Now while China is not much of a surprise India is and it could point to a serious shift in relations between the the latter and Russia. Again, I’m by no means pulling for Russia and would be much happier with a positive Ukraine outcome but I’m just pointing out what I’ve seen so that if this whole thing ends up with Ukraine signing a treaty giving up the Donbas and forming a new government or something people don’t act so shocked and outraged because everything they saw from standard media pointed to a Ukrainian victory being the probable outcome.

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Mar 1, 2022Liked by Arbitrage Andy

Great newsletter and perspective on this terrible event

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Mar 1, 2022Liked by Arbitrage Andy

Great newsletter. Very emotional. Fark Putin!!!

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Was emotional as fuck the whole week. Russian expats are stressed as fuck. Families and friends in both Russia and Ukraine. Putin is playing chess by using Russian diaspora in Ukraine as geopolitical pieces to push his agenda. While Ukraine is pulling a good media campaign I know the end result is probably gonna be taking over Luhansk and Donetsk and making them part of Russia. All I can do is speculate and hope I can save my family from getting absolutely decimated financially by all the sanctions. Im 28 and this is the second time after 2014 I am feeling like my homelands gov is killing any identity I had as a Russian

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