New Lockdowns & Crypto Dumps
221: Fall is Coming Quick Folks
Good evening folks bit backed up on the free posts as I have been extensively traveling, but just returned home and will be back in the groove of things over the next month or so - we’ve entered a new phase of markets and global developments in which many cracks are beginning to show. More and more people are beginning to feel the impacts of the recession, entrenched inflation, and stagnant consumer costs.
On a humor front - make sure you check out the Twitter beef between Dillon Danis and Logan Paul - in a nutshell, Logan is engaged to a woman (name escapes me at the moment) who is a model. Dillon figured out quickly that this check has more miles on her than a 2002 used Honda civic — and proceeded to post a photo or video of her with other various men for a week on end — hundreds of photos of her with Leo Dicaprio, Jamie Fox, and a whole other host of dirtbags from the farthest corners of Hollywood.
Talk about down bad — considering the ring was reportedly over $1M USD.
It’s been single handedly one of the worst beat downs I personally have ever seen on the internet.
On another front today’s post will cover some of the developments to keep an eye on as we enter the Fall Season and Summer wraps up.
Most notably — is the news that the Biden administration is reportedly preparing for another series of Covid lockdowns this fall - complete with masks, lockdown andates, and new boosters. A White House official said this weekend: "We will be encouraging all Americans to get those boosters in addition to flu shots and Respiratory Syncytial Virus shots.”
Global Markets
The much enjoyed rally by stocks has puttered out over the last two weeks as fears of entrenched inflation and unexpected Fed hikes sets in.
Traders are acting more cautious and the 10 Year Yields are at 4.34% the highest levels since before the financial crisis in 2007. We very well could be on the brink of a violent market correction and bleed.
Select tech stocks like NVDA 0.00%↑ defied logic today pumping into the stratosphere. NVDA 0.00%↑ added almost $74B in market cap.
HSBC maintained their buy rating this month, raising the stock’s price target to $780.
PayPal to stop Bitcoin purchases in the UK from Oct. 1 2023
Former president Donald Trump holds $2.8 million in ETH in a crypto
The Grayscale team posted to Twitter that their ETF team is hiring - is this a positive hint at the coming SEC vs. Grayscale ruling? If so bodes well for future spot Bitcoin ETFs
On Monday Argentina’s central bank raised interest rates to 118%
The U.S. government's debt will rise by $5.2 billion, every single day for the next decade (Unusual Whales)
President Trump warned on a recent interview that the US dollar is losing its dominance as the world's reserve currency
The average credit card balance rose to $5,947, the highest in 10 years, per TransUnion (Unusual Whales)
10 -Year - Yields are at 4.32% the highest level since 2007
2008 Market God and Big Short Size Lord Michael Burry has taken out a massive bet against US Stock Market Indices with put options
Apple will end paying up to $500 million to various users whose older devices slowed down after updates in the recent class-action lawsuit
Nearly 160 Wall Street firms have moved their headquarters out of New York since the end of 2019, taking nearly $1 trillion in assets under management with them, per Bloomberg/(Unusual Whales).
Equities & Traditional Markets
Despite the plethora of Western sanctions implemented against Russia over the last year and a half — there are some bright spots for Russia’s economy and wealthiest individuals beginning to emerge.
Ironically — this occured over the same period leading up to present day in which the Ruble is getting absolutely pounded. By Monday of this week, the Russian currency had crossed the threshold of 101 rubles to the US dollar.
This decline started in January and has since resulted in the devaluation of approximately 34% of the ruble's worth since then. This dramatic drop also signifies a stark contrast to the currency's performance last year in 2022, during which it was at one point in time the top-performing currency globally.
Hopes of a substantial rally in China equities are fading amid less confidence in statements and commitments made by the Chinese government to address consumer confidence, unemployment rates among the youth, as well as the property and real estate woes plaguing the country’s economy.
Several analysts at Nomura said in a note put out on Wednesday that the current outflows from China’s stock and bond markets would put more downward pressure on the renminbi and reiterated “maximum conviction” in their bet against the Chinese currency (Financial Times)
Crypto
Ah yes my favorite risk on asset class and new technology. Unfortunately crypto has softened amid continued volatility in the current macro environment. The softening of the Nasdaq and continued lack of clarity on ETF decisions is likely playing a big part in price action, though I wouldn’t discount the need by retail investors to sell or take profits to afford everyday necessities like rent, food, and entertainment. Crypto trading volumes are 62% below the yearly average according to recent reports from Coinshare.
if you’ve followed me for some time you know I continually stress that crypto is a patient man’s game — I’ve been in the space for almost 7 years and gone through multiple bear markets and extended periods of flat price action.
You don’t get to 3X - 10X multiples on positions by panicking during times of stagnant price action or FUD from big institutions. You must chad hold.
It’s important to understand where we are at — we are on the cusp of potentially several major ETF approvals which would likely send price skyrocketing from major buy orders that are amplified by stubborn traditional finance people realizing that Bitcoin is in fact not a ponzi. Everyone is going to want one.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors appeared on CNBC this week where he said approval of a spot bitcoin ETF could result in a price jump more than five-fold from current levels (Coindesk)
“I think the demand will be greater than the daily supply of bitcoin, so the clearing price [...] is over $150,000, could even be $180,000,” Lee said.
In my humble opinion you still have the chance to front run Wall Street here — but the price is weathering the current price action and uncertainty — a risk you must evaluate for yourself.
Still — markets look very weak.
As I always say you should have a long term view of crypto - I don’t recommend actively trying to trade it unless you have a good amount of experience and use strit atop losses and precautions.
It could a lot more painful in the short term and the ETFs could see more delay from the SEC and other organizations — because of this make sure you aren’t overexposed and can hold out until sunnier days if traditional markets get their knees cut out as we move into the Fall.
Global News
If you want to take a look at this week’s deep dive on global news developments with a healthy dose of spice - you can read it below. I talk through the blunt truth of what’s going on around us and how to anticipate what comes next as a result of the corruption, foul play, and deceit that is so common in politics and global events these days.
We cover the new Georgia Trump Indictment, the Maui wildfires that seem bizarre as hell, and the 2024 election landscape that is becoming more and more contentious by the day.
The Hawaii governor says the state is looking to purchase land destroyed in Maui wildfires - pretty convenient and timely right!
New York City bans TikTok on city-owned devices
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s support in the Republican presidential primary slipped to its lowest level this year, according to a new Quinnipiac University national poll (Spectator Index)
Republican Georgia state Senator Colton Moore has made moves to impeach Georgia District Attorney Fani Willis for her recent actions against Donald Trump
A new Covid variant BA.6 ‘likely’ present in US, as experts warn as calls for masking return - no thanks! (Insiderpaper)
Fatal cases of flesh eating bacteria have emerged in Connecticut, Florida and New York, according to health officials
Yevgeny Prigozhin Commander of the Russian PMC group Wagner who recently revolted in Russia, appeared in a video for the first time in a while, this time from Africa and invites people to join the ranks of Wagner PMC (War Monitor)
U.S. citizens located in Belarus should depart immediately as the US embassy in Minsk issues a recent alert
A Syrian man ambushed several cops in Fargo, ND with gunfire last week, shooting 3 officers — killing one before a fourth officer took him down with a handgun
Israel launched an airstrike on Damascus this morning according to Syria State TV
The Pentagon has approved sales of Apache attack helicopters to Poland in deal worth $12 billion (Spectator Index)
73% of Trump voters believe the indictments against him are actually a reason to vote for him, according to a CBS/YouGov survey/Spectator Index
China's Xi has arrived in South Africa for the BRICS summit
Trump plans to turn himself in and be processed at the Fulton County jail this Thursday, CNN reported, citing two different sources
Hawaii Overview
While the spicer takes and theories are covered in Arb Letter Premium posts I’d be remiss to not cover the Hawaii wildfires at a high level.
Last year the concept of a 15 Minute City was discussed at a conference in relation to Maui — in otherwards the global elite had plans to make Maui the first island to be a new era city — complete with high speed railways, AI autonomy, renewable energy sources, and modern architecture.
This plays into the theme we’ve seen emerge with CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies) and broader World Economic Forum/Globalist - esque movements that are centered on limiting consumption, carbon footprint, and movement. The end goal is control — to mandate how people live, where they can go, what they can consume, and what they are allowed to do. It’s a dystopian future being pushed under the guise of climate change and sustainability.
"It's absolutely catastrophic. Nobody ever voted for this. People are not allowed to use their cars outside of their 15 minute 'zone' more than 100 times per year. The idea is essentially to stop you travelling wherever you want."
— Professor Norman Fenton on “15 Minute” cities
In the week or so after the Maui fires the entire event stinks more and more. Not only are law enforcement and political figures kicking the can, but they’re also being incredibly vague about what happened, why things went wrong (like not turning on the water supply), and what the response is going to be moving forward.
1,000 people are still unaccounted for, many of them children — to me it’s fairly obvious that those people are dead or potentially worse.
The Maui Mayor threatened to end an interview when asked how many children were missing in the fires. He responded:
“I guess we can end this right now, if you want”
If you read Arb Letter regularly you remember the US Marine’s UFO account during the earthquake in Indonesia — he noted that many children go missing during international natural disasters, as its a prime opportunity for traffickers to take advantage of the displacement of families, lost children, and chaos that follows major disasters.
Food for thought.
First we had Biden’s absurd comment “no comment'“ when asked what his thoughts were on the fire then this? The Governor of Hawaii, Josh Green, took a wild swing at independent reporting last week, telling people not to listen to information from social media and "influencers." (Zerohedge)
Pretty ridiculous responses from political leaders during a crisis like this.
And back on the mainland US things are continuing to deteriorate on the industrial and security front — hazmat and firefighters were on the scene of a massive fire at a fertilizer food plant with chemicals leaking inside yesterday evening.
This event joins a laundry lists of similar events including train derailments, factory fires, and other disasters that seem to be growing in number by the week.
Question is — is it simple neglect or something more insidious?
I will be back tomorrow with a deep dive on starting a business while having a full time job — if that’s of interest make sure to subscribe to receive tomorrow morning.
See you guys tomorrow.
“If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, & it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us & destroy them. But the line dividing good & evil cuts through the heart of every man. & who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?”
—Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Mahalo