Invasion of Gaza Begins
228: Markets & Macro Update
Good afternoon — been a bit short on bandwith this week but wanted to get this Arb Letter out before the weekend as I suspect we are going to see some rapid price movement in select markets and potentially an escalation on the geopolitical front in the Middle East.
If you missed some of our deep dives over the last two weeks you can find them below. Book list has been pushed to Monday.
Capitalizing on Chaos - Financial Moves to position well in current environment
Brink Of World War III - Geopolitical Updates re: Middle East
7 Cryptos For Life Changing Wealth - Top cryptos I am focused on
Markets
The ETF speculation crypto rally has continued for the most part with major alts and blue chips moving into a consolidation range as equities falter. Major indices were shakey today with clear attempts to rally the market that fell short. AMZN 0.00%↑ led the pack today putting the whole market on it’s back doe.
Short term I like XLK 0.00%↑ , PPA 0.00%↑ and POWW 0.00%↑ .
Applications for mortgages to purchase a home are about 22% lower than one year ago, according to CNBC
$AMZN shares are up over 7% after reporting a top and bottom line beat, excellent operating income, and varied updates for cloud/AWS that suggest optimism in the short term
Gold has soared over $2000 amid ongoing political conflict
Saudi Arabian officials have warned the United States that Israel's ground operation in the Gaza Strip could have catastrophic consequences for the Middle East and oil prices, the New York Times reports (@clashreport)
Hedge-fund billionaire and Mets owner Steve Cohen says stocks will rebound after ‘fake scare’ recession (MarketWatch)
JPMorgan forecasts Israel's economy will shrink by 11% in the fourth quarter of 2023 (Spectator Index)
Google paid $26 billion in 2021 to become default search engine on browsers and phones (CNBC)
El Salvador President Nayib Bukele a massive proponent of Bitcoin is going to run for re-election in the next presidential election.
Taylor Swift is now officially a billionaire with an official net worth over $1.1 billion.
“Toyota's chairman and former CEO, Akio Toyoda, told reporters at an auto show in Japan this week that waning demand for electric vehicles (EV) is a sign that people are waking up to the reality that EVs aren't the silver bullet against the supposed ills of carbon emissions they're often made out to be” (@ChiefNerd)
Mortgage applications are now down 50% since the start of 2023 and at their lowest since 1994. Mortgage demand is currently ~25% below the levels seen at the 2008 lows, according to Reventure Consulting (@Kobeissi Letter)
FTX and Alameda wallets have sent ~$20M of assets to liquidation addresses over the past several days. The latest group, $500K of CVC, was sent only about 2 hours ago (ArkhamIntel)
At the moment I am pretty much sitting on my hands in regards to buying. I hold a sizeable crypto allocation and my usual equity longs in tech and defense. I am eager to see if we get a run from Ethereum who has remained relatively quiet throughout the Bitcoin ETF hype. Remember that there are several spot ETFs for Ethereum on the back-burner.
I remain hopeful that we see sizeable appreciation of blue chip crypto in the face of economic and geopolitical uncertainty but won’t be suprised if everything, crypto included, dumps next week at signs of a further escalated conflict in Israel and the Middle East.
Be prepared for everything. Hold some cash, don’t panic sell, and keep an eye out for opportunities. I don’t think it’s the right time to be full risk on but then agains crazier things have happened and defied logic.
Next week I will put out a small piece on my online business highlighting the things I am monitoring as we move into the Holiday season and different ways to maximize revenue with your customers and products.
That money comes in handy when there are sizeable corrections in markets because you have cash while most are panicking about selling to cover everyday costs and rent/mortgage payments.
Remember — it’s a test right now to see who can hold assets until sunnier days and money printers turn back on.
“I didn’t defraud anyone.”
—Sam Bankman-Fried
Global News
Right now the world is holding it’s breath watching the situation in the Middle East amplify with every 24 hours passed. Last night US forces struck Iranian proxy positions in Syria in a clear signal that Iranian aggression in relation to the ongoing conflict with Israel and Hamas will not be tolerated, nor will strikes on US troops in Iraq and Syria.
There are growing rumors that Israel will look to expand ground operations in Gaza tonight - IDF spokesman — other outlets reporting Senior Israeli Officials are stating that “Tonight is the Night” and that the Full-Scale Invasion of the Gaza Strip will begin in the coming hours (OSINTDefender):
"In the last few hours we have increased the attacks in Gaza. The Air Force is widely attacking underground targets and terrorist infrastructures, very significantly. Following the offensive activity we carried out in the last few days, the ground forces are expanding the ground activity tonight . The IDF works powerfully in all dimensions in order to bring about the realization of the goals of the war."
—IDF spokesperson
***UPDATE*** reports as of 2:15pm ET indicate the move into Gaza has begun — President Biden has just been Briefed by his National Security Team on Updates regarding the Situation in Israel and Gaza (OSINTDefender)
Israeli PM Netanyahu's spokesman rejects calls for ceasefire and says 'we will no longer live with this reality' and that the war is not being fought to 'deter Hamas', but that instead 'we have decided that Hamas must be gone' (Spectator Index).
The push into Gaza is going to have ongoing implications throughout the region — potentially pulling in US troops into a direct role and inviting hostile groups and nations like Iran and Hezbollah to begin targeting the US and her allies more aggressively.
I will continue to post updates on this development but it does not bode well for security or stability in the region or at home in the US. I’ve highlighted the risk of sleeper cells and hostile foreign groups acting up before, something amplified by the completely open borders to the South that allow thousands of military aged males into our country.
We have no idea who these people are or what their backgrounds are. Expect more events to kick off state side as individuals and groups protest and act against the US involvement in this crisis in the Middle East.
Iran's foreign minister says its allies have 'their finger on the trigger' amid impending Israeli ground campaign in Gaza (Spectator Index)
Explosions have been reported within the last hour near a U.S. Operations Base in Northeastern Syria close to the City of Al-Malikiyah (Spectator Index)
A lawsuit accuses Abercrombie & Fitch of funding sex-trafficking operation, per BBC (Unusual Whales)
NYC is tellingJews that it cannot guarantee their safety. More than 20K Jews living in Crown Heights are being told to shelter in place. In Greenwich Village, Jewish students had to be evacuated via tunnels to escape Hamas supporters on Wednesday afternoon (@amuse/NY Post)
CNN has officially closed the world news headquarters in Atlanta after more than 35 Years
Democrat Rep. Jamaal Bowman was caught on security footage removing warning signs right before pulling the fire alarm in Capitol, new footage has revealed
The US has dropped Confederate name from last of nine military bases — this comes on the heels of the take down and smelting of the colossal bronze sculpture depicting Confederate General Robert E. Lee situated in downtown Charlottesville. To that I offer this quote from George Orwell:
"Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped.
Face of Robert E Lee is smelted in Charlottesville NYC has set up ticketing centers to give migrants free one-way airfares out of town (NY Post)
Russia is apparently executing soldiers who try to retreat from fighting in eastern Ukraine, the White House has said according to BBC. Reminds me of Enemy At The Gates in Stalingrad 1942
Things are continuing to grow more tense in the Middle East — if I didn’t know any better I’d venture to guess the neocons and warmongers are doing everything they can to get us closer to World War III.
The U.S. has carried out multiple air strikes against Iranian proxies in Syria — further boosting the chances that the conflicts arising in the middle east escalate into something bigger that could drag in larger nation states like Iran, Russia, China, or the US.
A shooting rampage broke out in in Lewiston, Maine earlier this week that left 18 dead and 13 injured, though some reports are indicating over 80 people were shot. The perpetrator, at the moment suspected to be Robert Card, a certified firearms instructor and a member of the US Army Reserves, is still on the loose and is said to be armed and dangerous.
Officials suspect that he escaped the scene on a boat in a nearby river — The U.S. Coast Guard is actively searching the Kennebec River, as they suspect Card may have fled on his 15-foot Bayliner boat.
The FBI has previously identified this individual who had been in a mental health facility and already made threats of causing harm on a large scale. This tends to be the case in these instances — so why isn’t the FBI doing more to actively monitor these situations before they happen. Its even known he was “hearing voices” and was mentally disturbed.
I talk a lot about preparing for events like this — in fact we highlighted mass shooters as an elevated risk in the coming months multiple times as political and idealogical tensions grow in the US.
Maine residents likely weren’t expecting the this to unfold and now those that weren’t prepared for this step must scramble to get the things they need to live a normal day under these steps while a killer is on the loose, armed, and dangerous.
Another reason to arm yourself to protect loved ones and yourself. We have unhinged people loose in the states now — hopes and prayers wont do much to protect you should you get caught up in one of these horrific incidents.
Of course it didn’t take long for the Biden administration to post about Assault Weapons bans shortly after this event — solidifying that one of the number one priorities of the current administration to to take guns from law abiding citizens.
It’s laughable that anyone who understands force, the world, and society would think gun owners, after what we’ve seen the last 3 years would even think for a second about turning in guns, but once again they are at it.
You should ask yourself why, since criminals and people willing to murder innocent people will find a way to do it — either with alternative tools, vehicles, weapons, or illegal firearms from the black market.
Food for thought.
The combination of economic uncertainty, groups within the US that don’t necessarily share our goals or morals, and the deteriorating geopolitical conditions globally is a tinderbox set to light. Everyone can feel it in the air — it’s not some arbitrary idea or thought.
Something big is coming and it will be pronounced and likely change our way of life for a long time, similar to all of the NSA and CIA programs instituted in the wake of 9/11 and during the war in Afghanistan.
Remember two things — presidents during war time rarely lose re-election and, it is easier to implement protocols and regulations against citizens during times of war and chaos.
What’s coming will be similar to the loss of liberty, freedom, and sovereignty that we saw during Covid.
It’s not fear mongering — it’s reading the room.
Stay frosty kings.
Next week I am going to put out a piece on some of the best positive outlets for managing mental stress during these trying times. It’s clearly impacting people’s mood’s, dispositions, and mental health so I think this is well overdue — will touch on some of the ways I block out the madness and focus on advancing myself rather than just stew in the news.
Have a good weekend everyone
Andy
Great read as always
Great read. However, hard to not agree with the removal of rebel confederate statues. Should’ve never been up in the first place. Counterintuitive to the whole essence of the Union and our country.