How likely is Civil War?
086: Americans feel we are close to the edge
Warning - this is going to be an ultra rant, with highly spicy content. You were warned. Also - this is a serious post and I say that because we sometimes approach topics from an irreverent/light hearted standpoint. This is truly a warning and something for all of you to think about.
Each week in Arb Letter we synthesize and cover markets and news updates we know you need to be aware of to make the best decisions possible for yourself, your family, and your financial/social health.
The last several years however, have thrust hyper partisan politics into pretty much every American’s face and we feel it is partially our duty to make sure that people are aware of what is going on in this country.
The pandemic, lockdowns, government actions, financial markets, and decay of our society in general have started to materially impact American’s lives. It’s absolutely unprecedented.
Understand this people. We are at a critical juncture in the country’s life span. There isn’t any getting out of the current socio- economic landscape without something serious happening.
There are simply too many lies, too much pressure, too much corruption, and too much division for this to not end disastrously and/or violently. That’s the sad truth, it’s now simply a matter of when.
Take this to heart. People tend to make predictions or warnings like this political. This isn’t political, it’s simply reality.
Political partisanship is extremely polar and many new polls are indicating both Republicans and Democrats expect political unrest and violence in the coming years. If you have some sense of awareness you can feel it in the air right now in public.
“The current financial conditions and irreconcilable differences in desires and values are consistent with the ingredients leading to some form of civil war -
We are seeing that they are leading to much greater amounts of populism/extremism and conflicts between the right and the left, which is classic. Both sides are fighting to win at all costs and are unwilling to compromise.”
-Ray Dalio
Nobody wanting to work, people free-loading, wanton crimes in major cities, people snapping on people, wealth inequality growing, the list goes on. That stuff doesn’t just go away.
About two-thirds — 66% — say Americans have become more split politically since the start of 2021 and they are largely pessimistic about the future of the United States, with 63% saying they expect the separations to increase and 62% predicting political violence will worsen over the next few years, the YouGovAmerica poll shows (NY Post).
One thing is for sure - many many Americans foresee political violence and unrest coming in the near future. We should take note of these signs and sentiment and work towards diffusing the situation rather than trying to score political points for our party.
Let’s get into how realistic the chances of a Civil War, what experts are saying and where we see things going in the next year.