4 Comments
Mar 31, 2022Liked by Arbitrage Andy

Refreshing, based and well-founded read. The 10% I disagree with you over is that the numbness with which "normies" walk through life is installed and steered in a centralist manner by the elites. Truth is, it's so easy to think and talk about other people and their behaviors. Thinking big-picture, understanding long-term developments and interrelations takes time and brain power.

A 10 y/o kid can understand, laugh and be intrigued about a Hollywood actor slapping his colleague, but hardly any adult finds joy in understanding the consequences of inverted yield curves.

As long as we have shelter and food, humans are built to be sheep. It's an inherent human weakness, that the top 1% know to exploit.

Good times create weak men, weak men create hard times, hard times create strong men. Everything moves in cycles. We're exiting the good times right now.

Expand full comment

Please write a letter connecting the dots for us. I would love to hear how you have pieced things together regarding the scamdemic

Expand full comment

Also on the yield curve you need to look at a global yield curve not just US. Banks are global and take deposits in one country and lend to others, similarly large corporates can borrow in the countries and currencies that are most competitive. Banks bend over backwards to compete for clients, so if a Canadian, Japanese, whatever bank has lower funding costs than a domestic bank they will outcompete for business here or abroad. Economies are global so looking at the US yield curve in isolation is not giving you a real recession indicator.

Expand full comment

“ both sides here in the U.S. and foreign actors, namely our enemies like China and Russia, are all working in tandem to weaken the United States or sell out to other countries for riches ”

What’s interesting about this👆is that its a self fulfilling prophecy. If you look at highly dollarized economies like Turkey, belief that the currency will devalue causes retail to put savings into dollars, which weakens the Lira, which causes more people / businesses to put money into dollars, and so forth. Very difficult for central banks to deal with because its a vicious cycle. IF BTC or other crypto hit a certain critical mass you might see the same dynamic playing out with BTC:USD, but just like inflation it just requires mass psychology to tilt that way to get the cycle started.

Expand full comment