Crypto Degens Betting On Hamster Races
214: RFK Goes Chad Mode, $LINK Moons
Happy Friday guys — hope the week went well for everyone — today we’ll run through a quick overview of the most relevant financial markets news and world events compiled in an easy to read format.
If you missed some of our recent posts you can access them below.
What’s Actually Going on in 2023 (provides a geopolitical read on UFOs, Extreme Weather, Ukraine, and other hot topics)
Laws to Improve Your Life and Success (A guide to my favorite Laws of Power from Author Robert Greene’s 48 Laws of Power)
Top 45 Watches Under $6,000 (I cover 45 watch models under $6,000 for those trying to ball out on a budget)
Global Markets
Equities have been performing rather well all things considered. Futures markets appear to now be factoring in one rate hike for the remainder of 2023 and yesterday the Dow Jones continued it’s 9th straight day of gains.
Our beloved counter indicator since the start of the meme stock madness Jim Cramer said this week he believes we are finally overbought.
Do with that information what you will but I for one will be staying long and strong.
JPMorgan, the leading global investment bank, has issued a stark warning that the U.S. dollar's dominance might be jeopardized amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, along with apprehensions surrounding political instability within the United States. In a report published on Tuesday, the bank's strategists, headed by Jan Loeys and Joyce Chang, emphasized that the markets are insufficiently accounting for the potential risk of a significant and swift decline in the U.S. dollar's status as the preferred global reserve and trade currency
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said in June that he intends to raise the issue of de-dollarization at the summit. He has been vocal about countries ditching the U.S. dollar in global trade and using their national currencies instead (Bitcoin News)
About $24.8 billion of US office buildings were in distress at the end of the second quarter, surpassing hotels and retail properties, per Bloomberg (Unusual Whales)
Indonesia has launched national crypto exchange
Technology companies at the forefront of artificial intelligence development, including Amazon, Google, Meta (Facebook), Microsoft, and others, have consented to adhere to a recent series of AI safeguards put forth by President Biden's administration
Tesla has added a Bitcoin payment code on the back end of the companies’ website (Breaking Whale)
The MSCI China Index, which tracks over 700 companies listed at home and abroad, has been struggling for direction over the past three months with investors frustrated by Beijing’s slow-drip stimulus to overturn the pessimism. The index has lost 4.5 per cent this year, underperforming most markets in the region (South China Post). Still, UBS said recently, “We continue to think China's recovery beneficiaries should outperform thanks to more policy support. We suggest positioning not only in direct beneficiaries like consumer, internet, materials, and industrials, but also in indirect beneficiaries like financials and utilities, which offer high dividend yields”
A record number of American renters are spending at least one-third of their income on rents, per the Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies (UW)
Twitter commentator @ZackBornstein noted yesterday that Netflix ($NFLX) lost almost $18B in value yesterday. Stop sharing those passwords boys!
Amidst bitcoin's stagnant performance and the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector struggling to recover from the bear market, crypto traders have discovered an innovative method to generate returns. They are now engaging in real-life hamster races on the blockchain-based platform Hamsters.gg. In this unique setup, genuine and adorable rodents compete on a track, with participants placing real bets on the first hamster to cross the finish line. The website clarifies that both the hamsters and the bets are authentic, adding an entertaining twist to the world of crypto trading. If this isn’t the ultimate top signal nothing is.
Nobel laureate Paul Krugman says US dollar dominance won't last forever but doubts Chinese yuan can replace USD (Bitcoin News)
Barbie the movie expected to gross $100M in the first week with Oppenheimer pulling up behind around $50M. Sound of Freedom has already suprassed $100M
As China enters the summer vacation months, the government is actively promoting the digital yuan to travelers (Decrypt)
UK Treasury rejected calls to regulate Bitcoin like gambling instead of financial services - (Cointelegraph)
Russia has hike their key rate for first time since September 2022
Chainlink
Yeah yeah I’m sure you guys are tired of hearing about my favorite alt but there seem to be some positive signs emerging during this uncertain time in crypto.
My favorite alt has finally seen some relief in price action with the onset of CCIP (Cross Chain Interoperability Protocol). Chainlink (LINK) price moved up nearly 21% on Thursday to the $8.20/$8.30 range after spending months in accumulation ranges.
The positive momentum was driven by the CCIP announcement as well as buying action from several large whales one of which bought nearly 788,877 LINK for $6M.
The Chainlink Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) has now officially launched on Avalanche, Ethereum, Optimism, and Polygon mainnets. Andy what is CCIP I don’t understand all this techno-jargon.
To put it simply CCIP is designed to help build cross-chain applications and services. It was being tested by at least 25 partners that are now beginning to move to the mainnet, and was pushed live for early access users on the Avalanche, Ethereum, Optimism and Polygon blockchains (Coindesk).
You can kind of think of it as the first foolproof bridge between a world of different blockchains and by extension — the key piece to linking (see what I did there) on chain and off chain data.
The market for this is absurdly large — and judging by the big players already involved with Chainlink, prices will be much higher in the future.
The rally we are seeing is the biggest move in a few years and I am excited to see how Chainlink performs in the coming months and years.
Not overt financial advice — but in my mind this is a no brainer if you are bullish on the adoption and spread of defi, blockchains, and institutional use of smart contracts. Remember — patience pays.
"DeFi has faced billions of dollars in cross-chain hacks, with developers often having to patch together bridges to build dApps that interact across different blockchains. Chainlink CCIP finally gives developers one platform for building applications that securely operate across any blockchain.
Backed by the Chainlink Network's time-tested infrastructure and novel security approaches, which have enabled over $8 Trillion in Transaction Value, CCIP is a cross-chain solution that banking and DeFi builders both need to 10x the on-chain economy in their respective verticals”
—Sergey Nazarov, Co-Founder of Chainlink
FedNow
On Thursday, the Federal Reserve made an announcement regarding the launch of its latest instant payments system, known as the Fednow Service, with the participation of 35 banks and credit unions, along with 16 service providers and the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service.
Notable financial institutions such as BNY Mellon, JPMorgan Chase, Peoples Bank, U.S. Bank, and Wells Fargo Bank are among the participants and those looking to adopt the new service.
Many, including myself, believe this is the first step towards the US government implementing CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) which could provide virtually unlimited control over financial markets, liquidity, and personal access to money.
The government would have full control over your account, your balances, and have a detailed record of what your money is getting spent on.
IMF deputy managing director, Bo Li stated recently at a conference that “Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will be programmable, such that governments will be able to centrally determine what kind of people can use them, and what kind of things people can buy with them, in order to enforce their desired policy objectives”
Sounds good right?
“The Federal Reserve built the Fednow Service to help make everyday payments over the coming years faster and more convenient……. Over time, as more banks choose to use this new tool, the benefits to individuals and businesses will include enabling a person to immediately receive a paycheck, or a company to instantly access funds when an invoice is paid.”
—Jerome Powell
Global News
The US political field in the US is heating up with more pressure on Donald Trump and increased scrutiny of Democratic candidate RFK jr who spoke before a US House hearing this week on a number of topics. The War in Ukraine seems to be entering a new stage — one in which more nation states are making their positions known and new weapons shipments and financial support antagonize the Russians even more.
The Trump documents case trial set for May 20, 2024.
Australia opened a large-scale joint military exercise with the United States and almost a dozen other nations on Friday, as Chinese spy ship watches (InsiderPaper)
Pfizer has withdrawn an application for approval of the Covid 19 Vaccine in India after country regulators demanded a local safety examination and immunogenicity study. Wonder why they turned down such a lucrative market opportunity?!
Poland has announced the country will move military assets to the east of the country citing possible threats from the Russian PMC company — Wagner Group who is now based in Belarus after their failed coup attempt
An agreement has been reached by New York City to provide compensation exceeding $13 million to over 1,000 protesters who were either arrested or had encounters with the police during the Black Lives Matter protests in 2020. Makes sense! Let’s encourage more of this!
Putin stated this week that aggression against Belarus will mean aggression against Russia and they will return in kind
German Defence Minister Pistorius said this week “We are prepared to support Poland in defending its eastern flank”
Derek Chauvin, convicted in the killing of George Floyd will take the appeal of his state murder conviction all the way to the Supreme Court
Russian commander Igor Girkin, long a legendary figure in the Russian military for his past success, has been detained and charged for extremism
War on The Horizon
You’ll notice from some of the bullet updates that tensions are becoming heated in Europe with more nations making declarations to their allegiance and their course of action if certain developments occur. If you’ve been a long time reader of Arb Letter you know that I have concerns about the conflict in Ukraine has it has become more drawn out and unclear.
You can’t tell through the veil of Western propoganda if Ukraine is actually winning this conflict — and to be honest, there’s no reason they would be. Putin noted this week that no observable progress has been made in the Ukraine counter-offensive.
Despite the endless waves of lowly Russian conscripts and recruits being mowed down in the killing fields of Ukraine, more and more evidence is surfacing through videos and social media — that the illusion of a Ukrainian upper hand is melting away which makes sense if you think about. Russia has a larger economy, more weapons, troops, and manufacturing capability.
They simply have to wait out Kyiv like the Orcs at Helm’s Deep. If foreign aid falters or slows the Ukrainians may be in a tough situation.
There are some signs that we could be moving towards a much larger conflict including Western Powers (NATO) and Russia and her allies like Belarus.
Ammo is a concern and shortages have persisted for Ukraine which is one of the reason the US has chosen to supplement armaments with cluster munitions and soon potentially fighter jets. Providing more powerful weaponry is a risk to this conflict as it signals to Russia that the US is increasing its involvement and commitment.
Our role in this war has moved from one of proxy, to an increasingly closer version of direct support — so one might wonder what could send this all over the edge.
RFK Goes Chad Mode
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. went into Chad mode this week at a U.S. House hearing organized by Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government. Several contentious topics were broached during the hearing but most notably Kennedy touched on the following:
Censorship and weaponization of big tech
Vaccines
Government corruption
Fauci
Origin of Covid
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz actually put forth a motion that failed to censor Kennedy from speaking AT A HEARING ON CENSORSHIP.
WHAT IS GOING ON.
At this point in time it’s clear Kennedy is a thorn in the side of most Democrats — this was obvious by the endless attempts to silence him from speaking during this hearing, with Democrats claiming back their time, interrupting RFK, and trying to appeal to their higher virtue when asking why someone with his views should be allowed to testify.
Kennedy has claimed that the US had a high degree of involvement in funding the Wuhan Lab in China and that there is a hesitancy to punish China because of this involvement. “The CIA was involved certainly in this research”
“They were funding it through USAID.”
“And NIH, I think, in the end, gave about $26 million in funding to the Wuhan lab.”
“But USAID, which was functioning as the CIA surrogate, gave over $64 million.”
“The Pentagon also gave a lot of money.”
It’s pretty entertaining to be honest — to have a fresh Democratic figurehead who isn’t afraid to say what everyone’s thinking and rattle the establishment.
RFK is proof of a concept I have been covering here for a long time — which is that a uniparty exists in DC — one comprised of Republicans and Democrats alike who adhere to the strictest viewpoints put forth by the corporations and groups that control them. RFK isn’t telling most of you who read Arb Letter anything new. We all knew this already. The scary part is the adamant stubbornness to hide this information and avoid discussing it.
Wrong speak and clashing thoughts are not accepted — it’s okay if viewpoints are suppressed or censored so long as they are considered “extremist”.
We are living in a time where whistleblowers, evidence, and releases are simply discredited by the incumbent regime and power holder.
Nothing will ever happen as long as the people allow the government to simply gloss over alarming abuses of power regardless of which politicians are involved. But if I had to venture to guess Biden’s time is coming to an end — he has served a purpose for those who control him and it’s becoming harder and harder to deny alleged wrongdoings.
"Trusting the experts is not a function of science. It is not a function of democracy. It is a function of religion and totalitarianism, and it does not make for a healthier population."
“A government that can censor its critics has license for every atrocity — It is the beginning of totalitarianism. There's never been a time in history when we look back, and the guys who were censoring people were the good guys”
—RFK
Burisma Link
At this point the evidence and testimony against President Biden and his son Hunter is damning to say the least.
Senator Chuck Grassley released the documents this week which detail illegal business arrangements and bribes made by the Biden’s alleging that Mykola Zlochevsky, Burisma's founder, paid a $5,000,000 bribe each to Vice President Joe Biden and Hunter Biden to have Ukrainian prosecutor Viktor Shokin fired (@KanekoaTheGreat).
Senator Grassley acquired the record, an FD-1023, via legally protected disclosures by Justice Department whistleblowers. You can view all the documents yourself HERE. An FD-1023 form for those of you who don’t know is the form FBI agents use to record raw and unverified reporting from confidential human sources. So there is a caveat here to be clear — but this in conjunction with other releases and this video, is pretty suggestive.
I’ve included the middle page detailing the deal below:
At this point in our country’s’ history — it is clear to a large majority of the American people that corruption runs deep within our own federal insitutions. I don’t point this out as an easy attack or “gotcha” against the left. I provide it so that you have the true context of what’s being discussed at the highest levels of our government and what the implications are if it is in fact true.
It’s very easy to claim that all of this is manufactured or made up — but haven’t we learned our lesson the past several years with “conspiracy theories”. Most have been true. Where there’s smoke there’s fire and there’s a shit ton of smoke circling the current administration.
See you all on Monday and Tuesday.
Have a great weekend.
*None of this is formal financial advice - I am a former trader, enterprise salesman, and current online business owner. Opinions are my own.