CBDCs, Prisoner Swaps, Shadow-bans

124:Christmas gift ideas and markets wrap up

Wild week across the board in markets and news developments. We’ve seen the continued scams and games by politicians, centralized finance exchanges, and world governments continue to get worse as macro conditions also plummet for most people.

At this point we’ve pretty much committed to grinding in silence and waiting for the storm to pass us. If we aren’t already in a recession we will be soon. Reports of lay offs came to me from friends, family, and colleagues all of this week primarily in finance and tech roles.

Going to be more important than ever to stack cash, have a side hustle/business, and make sure that you’re waiting to accumulate quality assets once we get to some sort of local bottom that won’t simply fall out again.

Markets

Equity markets continued their losing streak this week as investors look towards holiday earnings and the Federal Reserve for it’s next decision which comes next week.

For now we are in a holding pattern and not buying anything. As we’ve mentioned before right now the best thing to o is stack cash.

We may be close to some bottoms on certain assets but I’d like to see how the Fed responds next week and how investors react to earnings through year end and into January. Crypto is interesting at the moment, as miners capitulate and the most Bitcoin ever leaves exchanges (presumably moving into cold storage) after the abundance of exchange freezes, bankruptcies, and collapses.

Smart people. Do the same if you haven’t already.

• Oil is set for the biggest weekly loss since April with large price swings and low liquidity impacting sentiment

• Mizuho recently downgraded Coinbase and said its price could fall another 30% or more

• U.S. chipmaker Broadcom faces a setback in their $61 billion bid for cloud computing company VMware with EU antitrust regulators intending to open a new full-scale investigation into the deal

• November's producer price index (PPI) showed wholesale prices rise 0.3% last month and 7.4% over the previous year. That topped the 0.2% gain expected by economists polled by Dow Jones (CNBC) This will likely hamper hope that inflation is slowing enough to prevent the Fed staying it’s hawkish course in the fight against inflation, although a 50bps hike is expected next week

• Lululemon, LULU, reported $1.7 billion in unsold merchandise this third quarter, an 85% increase from last year (Unusual Whales)

• Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX, has agreed to testify before the Senate Banking Committee next week

The FTX/SBF saga continues to play out. Most recently SBF garnered the help of the same lawyer who defended Ghislaine Maxwell.

Despite the public hatred growing day by day for him, he continues to run his mouth on Twitter and for some reason unknown to literally all of us, he isn’t yet been arrested or detained.

SBF sent threatening messages after Binance pulled out of FTX investment says CZ the founder of Binance who was in talks to offer help during the height of the debacle.

SBF @SBF_FTX

@cz_binance You won, @cz_binance. There's no need to lie, now, about the buyout. We initiated conversations around buying you out, and we decided to do it because it was important for our business. And while I was frustrated with your 'negotiation' tactics, I chose to still do it.

The consequences and implications o the FTX blow out continue to pan out and one things for sure — those involved seem to be getting a soft pass on any type of reprimands or accountability by most of the media. Below you can see Kevin O’Leary who was a paid shill for FTX try to excuse the fact that he was a paid spokesperson who received nearly $15M to shill it.

Cassius Bridges @BridgesCassius

Kevin O'Leary Called Out Live on Air For getting Paid 15 million to Promote #FTX 😂

• Crypto exchange Bybit will require updated KYC verification checks for various products from Dec. 15.

• Chainlink (LINK) staking went live this week — the provider of price feeds and other data for blockchains, had its first-ever staking pool draw in 24.27 million tokens worth some $170 million, with community allotment filling up in two days (Coindesk).

• In North America, the average investor allocation to hedge funds stands at 15.2 percent, more than three percentage points over the average target allocation of 11.9 percent, according to a Preqin report published on Tuesday.

• Orthogonal Trading said in a tweet on Tuesday that it had been “severely impacted by the collapse of FTX and associated trading activities,” making it unable to repay on a $10 million crypto loan (YF).

• Vale, the Brazil-based mining company saw shares gain 3.5% Friday after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight, citing a "cocktail" of positive catalysts such as price momentum for iron ore and China exiting its Covid-zero policy (CNBC)

• Presidio Trading, a quantitative hedge fund focused on trading digital assets, plans to separate its crypto tail risk strategy into a standalone fund, the company said 9Coindesk).

“There were ample reasons for investors to sour on risky assets…rising interest rates, unchecked inflation, and increasingly dour economic forecasts, [to] name just a few.

Investors trimming risk exposures and performing portfolio rebalancing at quarter-end likely had a multiplying effect on redemption activity from hedge funds.”

— Ben Crawford, BarclayHedge (Institutional Investor)

Global News

This week was tumultuous for global developments. Prisoner exchanges, Russia talking of using nuclear weapons again, more world cup drama, and a new batch of drops from the Twitter files that reveal just how expansive efforts were top censor differing opinions at the tech giant.

Nigeria was the latest country to pull some shenanigans to try and prompt citizens to adopt CBDCs or Central Bank Digital Currencies which we’ve spoken about multiple times in Arb Letter.

In a letter to banks and other financial institutions published this Tuesday, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) applied new limits on over-the-counter withdrawals at just $225 dollars for citizens and about $1,100 for businesses.

Customers will still be able to take out bigger sums in some select instances but still will have to pay processing fees of between 5% and 10%

Literally robbery lol.

The central bank’s director of Banking Supervision Haruna B. Mustafa wrote that customers “should be encouraged to use alternative channels (internet banking, mobile banking apps, USSD cards/POS, eNaira, etc.) to conduct their banking transactions.” (Decrypt). And they aren’t alone — The Bank of Spain announced plans to launch an experimental CBDC program this week as well.

Remember we posted about the new UK PM Sunak and his plans for implementing a CBDC?

Hopefully you guys see the trend that is emerging with money and centralized institutions that care for it. This isn’t that dissimilar from the plethora of crypto exchanges that halted withdrawals or from FTX.

Lots of things to keep your eyes on.

Remember the true value prop of crypto and mainly bitcoin, is that you can own your own money and be your own mini bank with self custody and cold storage.

• Politico put out an interesting piece on Cyberwarfare in Africa

• A new felony arrest warrant has been issued for Sam Brinton the Biden admin and senior Department of Energy official who confessed to stealing luggage at another airport several weeks ago

• Walmart is losing roughly $3 Billion a year in theft

• A repeal of the US military’s Covid vaccine mandate took a step closer to becoming law this week

• Biden authorized new $275 million in military aid for Ukraine this week according to Reuters.

• Recent Ukrainian drone strikes were carried out deep inside Russian territory amplifying concerns that the war could escalate as Putin becomes increasingly desperate

• This week the Biden administration decided to initiate a trade for Brittney Griner the WNBA player who was arrested in Russia for traveling with Cannabis Oil. She faced a nine year sentence in a Russian penal colony. Russia received notorious arms dealer Viktor Bout, aka "the Merchant of Death” who was the inspiration for the Nicholas Cage movie Lord of War. Seems like a fair trade lol.

Griner on the left and Bout on the right

A new drop of Twitter files revealed that teams of Twitter employees were building blacklists, preventing disfavored tweets from trending, and actively limiting the visibility of entire accounts and even trending topics in secret, without informing users and other executives.

Basically the shadow banning and reach throttling we suspected to exist (and that we KNOW exists on Instagram as well since our account has been at 249K for a year) was actually happening and there is now verifiable proof.

Funny, I remember other influencers and accounts mocking me for brining this up over the last several years and now it comes out as fact.

Comical.

In any case check out the proof below for yourself. Charlie Kirk’s account among many others including Libs of Tik Tok and other political influencers, had select throttles on, including “Do not amplify” and “Trend Blacklist (meaning those tweets would never reach the trending page.

This is blatant manipulation of social media, tech, and influence and it’s quite disturbing to see it confirmed and validated with twitter employees chiming in saying,” most normal people don’t know how much of this we actually do”.

An internal view of Charlie Kirk’s account, one of the many who which was spiked, throttled, and de-amplified

You can check out the full thread divulging multiple-examples HERE.

On Twitter reporter Bari Weiss comments:In 2018, Twitter's Vijaya Gadde (then Head of Legal Policy and Trust) and Kayvon Beykpour (Head of Product) said: “We do not shadow ban.” They added: “And we certainly don’t shadow ban based on political viewpoints or ideology.”

She added: What many people call “shadow banning,” Twitter executives and employees call “Visibility Filtering” or “VF.” Multiple high-level sources confirmed its meaning.

On top of that Elon Musk confirmed this morning that political candidates were shadow-banned on Twitter while running for office or seeking re-election. This is a grave grave issue and many people probably don’t understand it has the ability to literally alter how certain people view the world and act.

This won’t be the end of the releases and uncoverings for Twitter or other tech companies but definitely expect heightened distractions and double speak rhetoric to come from them as they try to scramble and defend obvious abuses of power.

Christmas Gift Recs

We dropped a comprehensive list Monday but we always provide 10 of the hottest gift recommendations for the holiday season to help generate ideas and de-stress people who have a hard time shopping for family friends and colleagues.

vLadies this is a predominantly male inspired list since that’s 80% of our following but our other guide is filled with gifts for women, moms, sisters, and friends.

1. WAGYU WORLD TOUR: 3-PACK - $449.00

For the meat lover in your life. Tour the world's best steaks with this sensational selection of the finest Japanese, Australian and American Wagyu steaks. Available at Holy Grail Steak co. Free shipping on orders over $199.

2. SelectTech Bowflex 552 Adjustable Dumbbells - $371.00

Most working professionals don’t have time to get to the gym all the time so having an option to get a quick shred or workout in within your own home, garage, or office is ideal. These adjustable dumb-bells from bow-flex are great for an intense workout and don’t take up that much space. Highly recommend. Available on Amazon - go buy a set and try to boost the stock price for me lmao.

3. Roosevelt Buffalo Leather Duffle Bag - $314

Every man needs a solid leather travel bag for a Miami bachelor trip or weekend in the Hamptons during the summer. I have had mine now for 5+ years and it’s still functioning great as ever. This bag from Buffalo Jackson boasts a lot of space, pockets, and stretch for those extra long weekend benders that end up with a hungover flight or train ride home.

4. JBL - Tune 760NC Wireless Noise Cancelling Over-Ear Headphones - Black - $99.99

Everyone needs a set of nice noise cancelling headphones that deliver better audio quality than air-pods or basic buds. I have owned two pairs of these and can attest to the quality off them. Use to use them when traveling for athletics in college and now use them for cross country trips and events or when I want to completely decompress at home and listen to Alex Jones rant on about lizard people while I work in the garden. Available online and at Best Buy.

5. Nice Driving Loafers - $100 - $400

I am ALWAYS, ALWAYS in the market for some slick new driving loafers with a more casual flair than my regular bit loafers. Nordstorm has some awesome deals on a whole range from basic cole haans to Ferragamos if you are looking to splurge. Plenty of markdowns on select sizes and some Bruno Magli in stock as well. Go check it out if buying for yourself or another fine footwear aficionado.

6. Peter Millar Suffolk Quilted Car Coat - $148 - $250

You guys know I am a big fan of Peter Millar for their unparalleled comfort golf shirts and pants. But they have been putting out some solid jackets as well and this coat is no exception. Perfect for travel and other activities when you dont want to throw on something that’s going to completely cook your ass.

7. PhoneSoap 3 UV Phone Sanitizer and Charger - $50

This particular UV-C sanitizer and charger kills 99.99 percent of viruses and bacteria on phones, keys earbuds and other small accessories. Perfect for folks who travel a-lot, use the subway/ubers, or have lots of gadgets in their homes.

8. JBL Flip 6 Waterproof Bluetooth Speaker - $100

How many times have you showed up to a party and someone ha sone of those portable speakers an dit inevitably ends up falling on the ground, getting liquor on it, or rolling around on a beer stained floor. The new JBL flip is waterproof and can take a beating with it’s firm construction. Easy way to be the GOAT at pre games and parties when you roll up and start blaring Gasolina.

9. iRobot Roomba i3 EVO - $229

Nobody has time to vacuum anymore so get them up to speed with the current century with a new Roomba. I have two in the house, one upstairs and one downstairs. No brainer.

10. Apple TV 4K - $124

If someone doesn’t have these plug ins for their TV yet get them up to speed quickly as the whole industry is moving this way and away from cable. Apple TV includes Apple TV+, Disney+, Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and more. They can get all access to most shows, games, and more with one simple plug in.

If you guys want access to a much more expansive list that will help you get your shopping done online in under an hour — check out our mega guide we put out Monday to our paid subs.

We list over 150 gift ideas, prices, different ranges, and some top picks. Well worth $5 to have all of that stuff in one place so you can go focus on trying to pick up your ex girlfriend at your hometown bar or slamming some Jack Daniels shots in the backyard with your cousins.

2022 Holiday Gift Guide

Hope you guys have a great weekend.

I will see paid subs for a deep dive Monday into our 2022 year in review rant. We’ll cover markets, politics, and more with a comprehensive review of the biggest occurrences and trends from this year plus a preview of the investments and opportunities we are eyeing for the next year.