ARB Letter - Treason, Chop, and Lehman
010 - Milley Treason, Crypto and Equities Choppy, Evergrande Default
Good morning frens - say it back. Wild week so far with crypto markets stabilizing after a recent dip and equities continuing to rattle alongside crippling inflation and global chop signs. Excited for some Warzone with the fellas tonight followed by a Saturday morning of meme origination and Arbitrage Andy partnership work - soon to be announced. Have a great weekend and don’t forget to fight off the trader belly with some push ups and/or sex. Congrats ahead of time.
As I mentioned a few weeks ago I am playing equities in a more defensive way given the multitude of risks we are seeing - China, Inflation, Social Unrest, etc. In my dick around brokerage account core long term holdings consist of MSFT, AMZN, PLTR, POWW, ARKK, ARKG, SWBI, and NVDA. My more aggressive plays right now are PLTR Calls (below) and JBLU Puts (short term delta/mandate play). Puts are worthless, will let the PLTR calls and commons ride here into the new year.
I am still very long (75%) BTC, ETH, LINK and (25%) ADA, DOT, TRX, MATIC, AAVE. Be weary - we may get some low volume induced chop this weekend for crypto as a whole - good buying opps though imho on blue chip alts and ETH. Going to read more on NFTs this weekend.
U.S. stocks fell for a second day with the information technology and materials sectors leading the declines as traders evaluated the resilience of the global recovery amid concerns about the delta virus strain and risks from China (Bloomberg).
U.S. stocks slide down in early trading ahead of fresh data on consumer sentiment
Raj Rajaratnam, the former hedge fund manager who got slapped with a record 11-year prison sentence in 2011 for insider trading, is publishing a tell-all book “Uneven Justice: The Plot to Sink Galleon”
The AQR Managed Futures Strategy fund (a computer driven mutual fund) run by AQR has had outflows of more than $10bn over the past four years, clients reporting underperformance. Yikes.
Biden will convene with world leaders Friday for a discussion about efforts to tackle climate change. Priorities.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has called for a review of the central bank’s ethics rules on the heels of massive liquidations by regional officials. Bit late.
Jump Trading, GTS, and Jane Street, among the largest players in the US equity market, are bolstering their trading in digital assets substantially
China may be facing their own Lehman Brother’s debacle with the Real Estate Titan Evergrande grapples with $300B of debt and a potential default - the same week 13 years ago that the US Giant collapsed.
Today is a “quadruple witching”, which is the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index options, stock futures and index futures. You probably heard autistic day traders throwing this term around on WSB in March 2020.
If it wasn’t glaringly obvious to anyone paying SOME attention to world news and developments, China’s influence has surely infiltrated our institutions and government at the highest level.
In case you missed the new piece of continually disturbing developments with China, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley actually told China that he would warn them well ahead of time in the event of a surprise attack by the United States. Am I the only one that thinks this is utterly fucking insane? Textbook Treason. I don’t give a fuck if you think Trump was “unhinged” or whatever gaslighting bullshit the media and left comes up with to excuse the direct undermining of a standing US President who, by the way dealt with China more effectively than Joe Biden can ever hope to. That’s a fact. Additionally I suspect China had a direct role in expediting our departure from the Middle East.
Excerpts of Woodward and Costa’s work published by the Post and CNN say that Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley—who continues on in that role under President Joe Biden—was so unnerved by Trump’s behavior in the aftermath of the insurrection and election that he believed the president was in “serious mental decline” and that the president could “go rogue.” (DB). Give me a break lol. Dramatic af. “Scary insurrection” of fat overweight maga hat wearing senior citizens falling over fences and Yak men taking selfies. Terrifying and totally not potentially a coordinated False Flag event with alphabet bois disguised as protestors. But yall ain’t ready for that talk. Our entire government is bought out now by China and foreign actors.
In case it wasn’t obvious I believe the January 6th “insurrection” was not only encouraged, but likely escalated intentionally. Look how perfect it’s been for the left to continually refer to and tote. It has been dramatized and used as a political tool. The same thing was done in the Ukraine by civilian clothed Russian Spetsnaz to incite riots and give Russians the excuse to crack down violently. In the US January 6th has served as the PERFECT convenient excuse to:
Gaslight Americans on the threat of Right or Alt Right people (serves dems very well) OMG fences are up - the threat must be very scary and real!!!
Excuse to role out extreme censorship of conservatives, Trump, and other dissidents online. I’ve witnessed this everyday online. It’s very much real and a concerted and targeted effort to control the narrative.
There is a small demonstration in DC today that’s already being deemed an Alt Right/White Supremacy threat. Monitor coverage of it closely, sure it’ll be alarmist and dividing.
Department of Homeland Security added Anti Vax/Alt Right action to their list of big threats recently. Getting ahead of the ball given they know people are going to resist mandates, potentially physically.
I want you to read this next excerpt from NBC and pay attention to both the tone and way in which it is written, it’s textbook gaslighting to frame something negatively in a subtle way.
Officials were concerned Trump might launch an attack to bolster his campaign (lmao what?), according to the book.
"For the record, I never even thought of attacking China — and China knows that," Trump said in his statement, in which he also called Milley "weak and ineffective."
The authors also reported that Milley took steps to make sure proper protocols for the U.S. nuclear arsenal were followed in the days after Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6 in an effort to halt the electoral vote count.
WTF lol. Trump wasn’t going to do shit with Nukes. Give me a fucking break. If you believe that even I can’t help you. All theatrics and drama to get people riled up.
Now look to set the record perfectly straight - I didn’t vote for Trump. That isn’t anyone’s business but I think it’s helpful context. I did however, think he was soberly effective in many areas and unbiased data would indicate that to be true (economically, vaccine lightspeed, China, etc.) despite all of the bullshit fed to us by the mainstream media every day.
The media leans drastically left, that’s a fact. I don’t make the rules and I don’t believe in extremes in either direction politically. I want my readers to understand the series of events here and the extent of what is being framed up and how you are being conditioned to view people from the right as evil. Was Trump perfect? Absolutely not. But I’ve chirped Trump and Biden. Treason is inexcusable.
If that claim triggers you I suggest you move on. I am a reasonable person and am willing to look at both sides of any issue but this is absolute bullshit and would NEVER have been tolerated in the past. Essentially you have the woke left excusing Milley’s actions BECAUSE they hate Trump or in their words he was “a threat”. Who the fuck gives you clowns the right to make judgments like that lol?
He was the president. I don’t give a shit if you hate Trump, you don’t get to actively work to undermine our leader and therefore our nation’s security over some BS like “he’s going to shoot nukes” lmao. The entire conclusion of the Trump presidency was carried out to condition the American public to view conservatives as the enemy and likely to help ensure they never win again.
Again, an American General told one of our largest Geo Political foes he would warn them in case we attack. What the actual fuck. I must have missed that in the Art of War. This world disappoints me everyday. I bring you these opinions because you won’t have the ability to see angles like this anywhere in the media anymore.
Have a great weekend!