ARB Letter - BTC ETFs & Putin Crypto

016 - Winter is Coming


Thursday - October 14th 2021


Sorry for the delay this week on the ARB Letter, was recovering from a wedding that I treated as an absolute bender, quickly liquidating 16 Whiskey Gingers before Dancing Queen by Abba came on at 10:30pm. It was a 2 day recovery period with a shit ton of WarZone, @Emmy’s Squared Pizza , and Gatorade. In my opinion the key main themes to be monitoring right now are worsening inflation indicators, very very bullish institutional activity in crypto, and the coming Fall/Winter. If you missed it last week we covered the basics of hardware wallet/cold storage options.

Right now I remain long in my core crypto holdings of BTC, ETH, LINK, and select Alts like ADA, MATIC, DOT, and AAVE. I am not adding to equities outside my 401K contribution and instead I am focusing on generating more cash flow from my online endeavors to fuel my businesses but also have more dry powder for some larger dips coming up. Might fuck around with some potential energy option plays with this volatility.

We have sold a handful of the dopest NFTs around, the Kings of Finance Series. We have a team working on some new releases and will keep you apprised of launch dates, but for now check out the collection! Jamie needs a home ASAP.

Michael Burry the famed Hedge Fund Oracle who called the 2008 crisis has been going OFF on twitter and warning us on the mother of all crashes again…..

“All hype/speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes,” Burry wrote in another now-deleted tweet from earlier this year.

As of June 30, the biggest position in his company Scion Asset Management’s portfolio, was a size lord worthy $730 million bet against Tesla in put option plays.

Burry has bullish positions in FB, GOOG, and WMT.

A post shared by Arbitrage Andy (@arbitrage.andy)


The odds of a Bitcoin related ETF getting approved before the end of October seem to be looking extremely favorable. We could see some aggressive price action that is bolstered by a flood of retail money in the next two months.

According to Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas there are “good signs” that the SEC will approve Bitcoin futures ETF applications from Ark Invest and Valkyrie.

Other larger players on Wall Street are projecting their crypto sentiment transparently. Cathie Wood of Ark Investment Management LLC has recently filed for a Bitcoin (BTC) futures ETF under the ARKA ticker, while Valkyrie has made a promising move to assign its BTC futures prospectus with the “BTF” ticker. Should have made it BTFD or HODL but I digress.

Eric Balchunas echoed that typically there are a handful of signs the SEC is close to giving the green-light to an ETF. While he did admit Crypto is unpredictable and there isn’t really a precedent for this decision, in his opinion it looks favorable given the last minute updates to the commercial details.

Many point to Bitcoin’s (BTC) pump the last month as a sign many smart investors expect an ETF to be approved in October. I don’t know about you but I wouldn’t want to get caught short if and when it does get approved. Long and Strong.

In other news Mother Russia may be the hottest new supporter of cryptos and Bitcoin. President Vladimir Putin has showed recent signs of tolerance of cryptocurrencies, which have continually been drawing increasing scrutiny and attention from regulators around the world amid fears they can be used for money laundering and nefarious activity.  More FUD. They fear what they know is inevitable.

Cryptocurrency “has the right to exist and can be used as a means of payment,” said Russian President Vladimir Putin in an interview with CNBC that was posted to the Kremlin’s website on Thursday (Bloomberg).

Historically the Bank of Russia has repeatedly warned investors that crypto markets are extremely volatile, and that digital currencies are not to be allowed to be used as a method of payment domestically within Russia, that may soon be changing. Though they have not seemed to be out to invoke measures as severe as their neighbor China.

It’s Thirsty Thursday and Andy wanted to give you all a morale boost to finish the week strong, so here are some of what I consider the most iconic Sport’s Illustrated swimsuit shots. Godspeed, protect your profits and make sure to hedge. It’s going to be a wildly volatile Fall/Winter. Take care of your business and keep grinding lords.

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