Trade the Super Bowl Live with Arbitrage Andy, Litquidity, and Not Your Father's Broker
030: Ball Street Trading, Russia Ukraine, and Crypto VC Funding
Super Bowl weekend baby! For many legends everywhere it will be one of the rare occasions you delete 10+ Bud Lights or cheap beer comparable light beers since undergrad then wake up Monday morning with explosive Diarrhea from poorly prepared Pork Sliders some girl named Sarah made at the Super Bowl Party you went to in East Village. 13 People piled into a studio. Now you’ve got retroactive meat sweats at 9:00am and the markets open in 30 minutes. Everything dumps because Putin been out here wylin all weekend and deleting 1/5s of vodka. STOP let me help you have a better 24 hours.
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Markets seem to be moving less off an expected rate hike in March and more off the chances that the world plunges into global thermo-nuclear war in the lat week or so. As information and updates trickle out of Ukraine we will keep updating the ARB Community regularly.
Crypto performed well through week end but faltered Friday and this weekend with $BTC falling to the $2,000 range and $ETH falling to the $2,900 range. Indices continued to chop well into Friday afternoon.
Twenty-seven lawmakers recently wrote a letter urging House leaders to act quickly to bring "commonsense, bipartisan" legislation to the floor banning members of Congress from owning or trading stocks (Yahoo Finance).
Crypto has seen a massive influx of Venture Funding as depicted below - actually staggering and incredibly bullish
The Super Bowl is proving that it will be a massive marketing opportunity for crypto and NFTs. A whole range of companies have selected air time to air crypto and NFT related content to the millions of viewers tonight. Big adoption energy.
As information and updates trickle out of Ukraine it is becoming harder and harder to decipher what is fact and what we should give credence to. We will do our best to cover the events and developments in an unbiased manner but at the face of it, things do look to be escalating.
The situation in Ukraine has supposedly deteriorated according to Western news sources, whereas Russian officials continue to deny any indication of an impending attack. I am definitely weary of the repeated efforts by the current administration to stoke this conflict. It’s quite obvious it serves as a distraction from inflation, Covid 19, and other domestic woes. False flag events, like the Gulf of Tonkin, seem plausible here.
More recently the Russians have added Air to Land Fighter capabilities to the region as well as conducting live fire naval exercises in the Baltic.
Air: Russia has been significantly expanding its air-to-ground fighter force in the regions surrounding Ukraine and as well as it’s training to conduct air support to ground forces in preparation for a possible large-scale mechanized invasion of Ukraine.
On February 3, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced a live fire exercise by Su-25 and Yak-130 land attack aircraft at the Brestsky training ground in Belarus as part of their bilateral exercise (known in the Western press as Allied Resolve and by Russia as Union Courage). Significantly, the Russian MoD stated that the aircraft worked with a ground party, including airborne units, artillery fires, and army aviation strikes. Additionally, the MoD pointed out aerial reconnaissance from an unmanned aerial vehicle was used to generate the targets for the fighter-bomber aircraft.
On February 4, the Russian MoD announced the deployment of an S-400 Division to training grounds near Brest, Belarus. The S-400 is Russia’s most advanced operational long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, with a maximum range of 250 kilometers. (While there exists an S-400 missile capable of engaging targets to 400 kilometers, that missile is currently not considered operational.) These battalions will provide coverage for ground forces and airfields in Belarus, help cover the advance of an invasion force from Belarus, and engage Ukrainian aircraft operating over the capital of Kyiv or along the Ukraine-Belarus border. These SAM systems are lethal to both large, non-maneuvering targets such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and cargo aircraft, as well as fast-moving, highly maneuverable fighter aircraft. These systems will help Russia achieve air superiority over the Ukrainian Air Force within days of the start of a further invasion and will push US and allied ISR and cargo resupply aircraft out of Ukrainian airspace in the event of conflict.
This is an excellent resource for looking at how satellite imagery has changed warfare. The Economist has some dope tools you can use to see the environmental and geographic hints that the Russians are giving about their most recent troop movements. Large battalions and armor groups are moving around and massing around Ukraine. In response the US and NATO have begun to organize and move strategic assets into more capable positions in the coming days:
The US also said it was deploying a further 3,000 troops from Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to Poland, and that they were expected to arrive there next week. The troops will not fight in Ukraine, but will ensure the defence of US allies.
The US Air Force is reportedly sending four B-52 Stratofortresses to Royal Air Force Base Fairford in the United Kingdom as part of a Bomber Task Force mission. The Bomber Task Force mission is well-established and, according to US EUCOM, “demonstrates the US Air Force’s unique ability to rapidly deploy to unfamiliar airfields and integrate with NATO allies and coalition partners.” The deployment at this time of heightened tensions is likely designed to signal the United States’ resolve and demonstrate military strength in the face of continued Russian military build-up and bellicose statements (Atlantic Council).
As negotiations continue to fail and the West appears to be looking for any excuse to nudge Putin into a rash decision I do fear this has the capability to devolve very quickly in the coming weeks.
Thank you to all of you who followed the new Arbitrage Andy twitter account after we the original was suspended. We amassed over 1,600 followers in 24 hours. Appreciate all the support you guys do! If you haven’t had a chance and don;t mind - it would be super helpful for anyone else to smash that follow on twitter as we try to build up our brand again.