Thanksgiving Week Chiller Guide
120: Need to know market and gift updates ahead of US Holiday
Happy belated Thanksgiving to all of my American subs. Yesterday and this weekend will surely be a glorious blend of whisky, meats, cheeses, beer units, naps, “walks”, and football.
When you’re younger one of the ultimate rushes is going back to your small hometown and flexing with your new found entry level job riches. Bud lights are flowing, Jager bombs are $4 a pop, Buffalo Wild Wings is looking super tempting for late night, and your ex just showed up at the bar.
As you get older you pivot from the pre Thanksgiving bender night to a long slow day of black coffee, a nice walk, a solid meals, and a well maintained imbibed state driven by quality liquor or wine.
Personally I am always at risk to the 3pm/4pm DEEP REM nap on the couch after a few beers and appetizers.
But style it how you like it.
This time of the year is sure to be interesting for folks with big families as the last several holidays were all under quarantine, lockdown, and hyper polarized vaccine conversations.
This year all the conspiracy theories came true!
Pay attention and see who has learned lessons, seen the light, or had some realizations about everything going on around us in the world at the moment.
Those that maybe were initially fooled but now can understand will likely make for great conversation partners
Anyway - we’ll leave you with a brief markets and news update section and then some tips and plugs for the Thanksgiving weekend.
We will see all paid subs Monday for a post on how to keep fit while working long hours along with some of the exercises I recommend to get stronger when you’re pressed for time or rushed with a busy schedule.
As context I was a NCAA athlete and still lean on many of the training regiments, lifts, and schedules I used back then.
1For those that asked we will lay out the lifting regiments, exercises, and basic methodology we follow for working out. If you are someone who wants to get back in the gym, ramp up an existing regimen, or make sure you don;t get plump during the holidays this will be a great piece for you to read.
Bigger Market & Global News Updates
You can use these data points as personal ammo or as talking point to make everyone at the bar or party think you’re a genius just don’t talk some chick’s ear off about FTX and their capital structure for too long.
In a tumultuous week for stocks and crypto we’ve seen crypto begin to level off after the disaster with FTX.
Traditional markets are open at the moment and relatively flat. U.S. stock and bond markets will close early but their seems to be no real bid at the moment. Likely many spectators.
Markets at the moment expect the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee to move down to a 0.5 percentage point increase in December as signs of inflation easing begin to show, although just initial.
At the moment it appears several Fed officials have hinted at a potential rate slowdown in December.
Markets are slow today likely due to the holiday and weather is varying across the country with some gloomy skys in the northeast.
On this day in 1783, the last of British troops evacuated New York City.
Binance released proof of reserves quelling some outstanding fears about more crypto contagion and insolvencies fin the wake of FTX. Moving forward this will likely be the way that needs to be followed for many large public crypto companies and would have prevented this entire ordeal.
Bitcoin is hanging out around $16,500 as the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday weekend begins. Ethereum has recovered to the $1,200 range.
Authorities in Turkey announced they are looking to seize/apprehend "suspicious assets" associated with collapsed crypto exchange FTX, and are beginning to investigate the platform's founder Sam Bankman-Fried known as SBF on the internet.
Major media companies have been releasing super soft pieces on the founder recently, leaning into softer language for the fraud and painting him as a martyr.
Microsoft (MSFT) has replaced Amazon (AMZN) as the most popular top 10 holding among hedge funds, strategists at Goldman Sachs led by Ben Snider said in a recent note (YF).
Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett is now positive on Chinese stocks according to Yahoo Finance, and the firm named selling US tech stocks as one of its top trades for 2023 - Baidu and JD.com just had solid earnings and even while AliBaba lags from a sales perspective, Chinese appetite could be growing for US Investors despite macro woes re: Taiwan
Investor buying of homes tumbled 30% in the third quarter - wsj
FIFA will allow rainbow hats and flags at Qatar World Cup stadium in U-turn - Sky News
FBI Director Christopher Wray said this week that China poses "the greatest longterm threat" to American national security. This was during a hearing preceding the Senate Homeland Security Committee
Walmart mass shooter Andre Bing claimed that he was 'led by Satan' to murder six of his colleagues who gave him 'evil twisted grins' and 'mocked him' in a recent exposed death note - six victims were killed during the spree
According to recent reports more than 8 Congress Members tried to allegedly stop the SEC from inquiring into FTX by questioning the SEC's authority to inquire about Crypto at all - 5 of those 8 members also received campaign donations from FTX, ranging from $2,900 to $11,600 (Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker)
Germany may have to take drastic measures including gas rationing if their levels of gas in storage drop below 40% by February 1st of 2023, according to the German Federal Network Agency
Mass protests in Guangzhou over strict Covid policy of China erupted this week with iPhone factory workers and others striking against police some of the engagements becoming quite violent.
Videos circulating on social media showed groups of law enforcement officers clad in hazmat suits kicking and hitting protesters with batons and metal rods.
Foxconn has offered to pay newly recruited workers 10,000 yuan ($1,400) to quit and leave the world’s largest iPhone assembly factory, in an attempt to quell protests that saw hundreds clash with security forces at the compound in central China (CNN).
Ukraine continues to drag on in the wake of the missile strike in Poland that is now identified to likely have been of Ukrainian origin.
NATO has announced more support for Ukraine and countries in the region are on high alert for similar incidents.
“This conflict has revealed that munitions production in the United States and with our allies is likely insufficient for major land wars,” said Ryan Brobst, an analyst at the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies recently (AP)
More money and arms are being weighed to be sent over to Ukraine as the Russians have pulled back but continue to lob in excess of 20,000 projectiles a day in Ukraine including bullets, artillery rounds, mortars and more.
On their website you can see the Department of Defense (DoD) announcing the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $400 million to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs. ANOTHER $400 Million people.
This authorization is the Biden Administration's twenty-sixth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.
The inventory includes:
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 200 precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds;
• 10,000 120mm mortar rounds;
• High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
• 150 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
• Over 100 light tactical vehicles;
• Over 20,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition;
• Over 200 generators;
• Spare parts for 105mm Howitzers and other equipment.
You can read the full terms on Defense.Gov.
The United States has committed more than $19.7 billion in security assistance, arms, and ammo, to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration.
"I want you to know that I personally, and all the leadership of the country, we share this pain, we'll be doing everything so you won't be feeling forgotten,"
(Putin to mothers of dead Russian Soldiers this week)
—Vladimir Putin
This week little Anthony Fauci was torn to shreds on his White House departure speech
White House Press Secretary Jean Pierre lost her shit and flipped a gasket when a reporter asked Fauci “what have you done to investigate the origins of COVID?”.
Karine Jean Pierre responded:
Hold on one second. We have a process here. I'm not calling out on people who yell. And you're being, you're being, you're being disrespectful to your colleagues, and you're being disrespectful to our guest. I will not call on you if you yell. And also, you're taking time off the clock because Dr. Fauci has to leave in a couple of minutes, and I'm done, I'm not getting into a back-and-forth with you. Go ahead, Jeremy.
Despite the obvious lies about the origin and nature of Covid, and the twisted facts on Vaccines he decided to double down on his departure. “Please, for your own safety, for that of your family, get your updated Covid-19 shot as soon as you’re eligible to protect yourself, your family and your community,” Fauci said.
This comes right on the heels of an unsettling Washington Post analysis has found that more vaccinated people are now dying of the Covid disease and 58 per cent of coronavirus deaths in August in the US "were people who were vaccinated or boosted".
The Family
Among consumers, 70% say they intend to purchase less meat, seafood, or canned goods, a cheaper brand, or both, as the nation prepares for Thanksgiving and the winter holidays, according to an Ipsos survey conducted in mid-November (USA Today).
Last month, the price of butter and margarine was up almost 34% compared to last year which is the biggest annual hike ever recorded, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Other record breakers include flour and prepaid flour mixes which cost roughly 24% more, and frozen vegetables, turkey and other poultry which all went up 17% (USA Today).
I mention this because times are going to get more and more tough - people have lost jobs, fallen sick, lost money in markets. It’s really just a good year to be friendly, understanding, and throw backs some units with the boys and family as people trudge through these down times in the markets.
Family - love em or hate em you hopefully have the privilege of having one, and navigating the social nuances of a bunch of adults getting together under one roof. Many you likely haven’t seen for a year or two due to the pandemic.
Judgements will be cast, controversies stirred, and comments made. Between Trump, the vaccines, mid terms, crime, Ukraine, inflation, crypto, and a whole host of other high profile issues it is sure to be a legendary week of table discussions and fights.
In my experience the best way to get through sticky conversations is to simply sip your drink, smile, and chill. Let others drink too much or make offhand comments. One things for sure — many of these conversations will likely get political.
People are on edge and tired from the last 2 years of constant bad news and grim events, try to talk about positive things like opportunities and family.
Be careful talking about finances s well because your grandma or uncle might have lost literally everything on Cumcoin or any number of other ponzis.
Now because you failed to get them out of the market in time they’re plastered at Thanksgiving talking about the Biden administration and the Balenciaga scandal.
Take some time out of your day to be thankful for the good things you do have in your life. I think in the stress and hyper stimulation we have in our modern day lives it is really important to sit back and pause to think about what you are grateful for.
They say that happiness is achieved by realizing what you have and understanding how you might feel if those things were gone all of the sudden.
I find this is a great exercise for becoming content and present in the moment.
So delete an extra scotch with your brother, bust out the finest cigars for the hometown crew, and take that “special long walk” with. your cousins after dinner — life is short!
Be mindful ad go live it!
College Football Games
Quick plug for game times.
We’re not super big pro sports or jersey wearing type guys but I personally love college football. Just so primal, raw, and spirited.
I love college football particularly during the holidays because I can get a nice buzz on play with the dog, roll out, stretch, hang with the son, or do anything else while watching, including administrative work for jobs/side hustles.
If you’re trying to relax and drink or head to the bars here is most of the schedule for the weekend:
FRIDAY NOV 24
LIVEN NOW- Tulane, Cincinnati, Baylor, Texas, Utah State, Boise State, Central and Eastern Michigan, and Toledo.
Arizona vs. Arizona - 3:30 ET
NC State vs. North Carolina - 3:30 ET
Arkansas vs. Missouri - 3:30 pm ET
UCLA vs. California - 4:30 pm ET
Florida vs. Florida State - 7:30 pm ET
Wyoming vs. Fresno State 10:00 pm ET
SATURDAY NOV 24
Georgia Tech vs. Georgia - 12:00 PM ET
Michigan vs. Ohio State - 12:00 pm ET
South Carolina vs. Clemson - 12:00 pm ET
Rutgers vs. Maryland 12:00 pm ET
Wake Forest vs. Duke - 3:30 pm ET
Michigan State vs. Penn State - 3:30 pm ET
Utah vs. Colorado 4:00pm ET
Oregon vs. Oregon State 3:30 pm Et
Alabama vs. Auburn 3:30 pm ET
The Drip
I try to always come correct on Thanksgiving weekend with the Fall Drip because I feel like the pilgrim homies would appreciate it.
So I start with a fresh pair of bit loafers, seasonal socks, and a nicer watch. Then I choose a flannel, pullover, or dress shirt with a festive tinge to it and pair that with comfortable pants like LuLu ABCs or Peter Millar stretchy bois.
Gotta look good slurping down festive margaritas and fine cheeses.
Deal Sleds (bit loafers) are a staple. They can pair with all kinds of pants and dress up basically any outfit with minimal effort.
Everyone knows we are huge deal sled connoisseurs here at Arb Letter and Arbitrage Andy so outside our staples of Gucci, Ferragamo, etc. we like to have other loafers for casual/semi formal use that are well made and durable for the many bar crawls, parties, and events during the holidays.
One of our long term partners for all around go to sleds is Jay Butler.
They are having a sale at the moment for 20% off the entire store.
Check them out if you are in need of a good pair of sturdy loafers for the Holiday season. We wear our pair of gator skins with gold bits to Miami all the time. They have a solid range of colors, textures, and more.
A great everyday loafer with enough durability to keep up with constant use. They make shoes that will last for years and respect the time-honored traditions of fine shoemaking starting with high-quality leather.
I have 8 pairs at the moment and can honestly say there isn’t a situation in which I am not properly equipped in regards to my deal sled collection.
CHECK THEM OUT HERE
Jay Butler is an American Company and I have thoroughly enjoyed wearing their loafers in the Hamptons, in Miami, in California, New York, and in Ibiza.
Great holiday gift for a little brother with a first job or for yourself as a staple for the colder months when pants are a must wear.
Then when the sun shines again in the Spring we can engage back into Veiny Boys mode sans socks.
The Sauce
For Thanksgiving week I used to be a bourbon or scotch guy and I won’t necessarily turn those don if offered but my preference is for Tequila now with a steady auxiliary flow of light beers like Stella, Modelo, Allagash, etc.
Tequila for me gives virtually no hangover unless paired with Red Wine and that’s a sacrifice I am willing to make.
Whatever you choose to chug, remember that it pays to get a nice even joy ride going throughout the day starting around 1/2pm to avoid crashes later in the day.
We recommend the following premium options for gifts our for yourself if you’re of legal age (these are just our preferences and solid picks for most people. These pair nicely with cigars, cigs, devil’s lettuce, gummies, and more.
Imbibe responsibly.
Good price range here as well depending on how much you are looking to spend.
Patron Tequila
Casa Migos Tequila
Clase Azul Tequila
Coconut Cartel Rum
Dalmore 15, 18, 25
Four Roses Single Barrel
Tanqueray 10 Gin
Howler Head Whiskey
Glenmorangie Scotch Single Malt Signet
Rey Compero Tepextate Mezcal
Belvedere Vodka
Beer - Modelo, Guiness, Juice Bomb, Lagunitas, Stella Artois, Sapporo,
Red Wine - J. Lohr Estates Seven Oaks Cabernet Sauvignon, Benziger Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County, 2017 Domaine Harmand-Geoffroy Gevrey-Chambertin Vieilles Vignes, 2016 Domaine Lecheneaut Les Pruliers,2019 Lucien Muzard & Fils Bourgogne Rouge
Black Friday Deals
While we will send out the gift guide this week there are already a range of great sales to take advantage of if you are looking for yourself or for gifts for others. Substack limits the amount of links we can put in these posts but we will still list them out so you can use them.
They are running some great Black Friday deals.
A record 166.3 million shoppers are expected to hit the stores from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, almost 8 million more than when the NRF (National Retail Federation) began tracking data in 2017. So make sure you’re getting to stores early and during the non prime hours unless you want to get linebacker checked by some Massive woman trying to grab the last crock pot on sale.
Just screenshot it if you can’t remember.
Men:
Orvis
LuLu Lemon
Bass Pro Shop
Yeti
Barbour
Apple
Samsung
Brook Brothers 9still around, great deals)
Howler Brothers
Tod’s
Allen Edmond
Ferragamo
Women:
Roller Rabbit
Davi Yurman
Hermes
Cartier
Barbour
Apple
Samsung
Candles
Nordstrom
Chanel
Burberry
Tiffany’s
Off the top of our head before the guide comes out here are 5 quick gift ideas for men 20-30.
At this time of the year I ironically also find myself grabbing things that I need at affordable prices so this is a two way preview of our ultimate list for either gift receivers or yourself.
Call of Duty Modern Warfare Two - take a trip down memory lane and go back to the original Call of Duty Modern Warfare where men were seasoned in lobbies of expletive comment hurling and obscene insults. The franchise has continued with their highly successful WarZone game mode and the new map looks like something out of Iraq or Afghanistan.
If coming up quietly out of a muddy river to sneak attack enemies or going full Zero Dark Thirty is your idea of fun this break and holiday season definitely cop it. Graphics have improved drastically, there are endless game modes, and endless weapon customization.
Great game.
Flannels - Costco has some serious Arb on Flannels that should not be ignored — same goes for sweatpants and athletic shorts.
If you’re looking to spend more in similar lines with flannels we always recommend Orvis, LL Bean, Arcteryx, Bass Pro Shops, LuLu Lemon, etc.
Can’t go wrong with vests, flannels, and other cold winter gear.
Cold Storage for Crypto - Ledger or Trezor - this is a no brainer and most people should already have their stuff ion cold storage but if you know somebody who needs the final push to get top notch safety for their holdings this is the perfect gift.
Could be for older family members or crypto ignorant friends but they will thank you in the long run for the thoughtful gift.
Some type of outdoor class - Personally I love shooting classes and different types of fitness training. But I also enjoy fishing guides, hikes, brewery tours etc. Depends what your gift recipient or your preference is but you get the idea. Buying an experience is a great way to get a solid gift that people will recognize took thought in planning.
Finance Books - More Money Than God, Liar’s Poker, Market Wizards, Bitcoin Standard, and all of the ones listed HERE.
Bonus - get some good cologne. Hermes, Dior, etc. there are a whole bunch that smell frickin great. Don’t be some bum who’s showing up to people’s houses smelling like pit sweat and gingerbread edibles.
We will expand on these items and more in our gift guide this week.
Annual Black Friday Sale
We are hosting our 3rd annual Black Friday Sale on the Arbitrage Andy store. 20% off everything through Tuesday.
If you guys didn’t know or haven’t popped by before we were one of the first finance meme pages to break into the merch business and since 2017 we have expanded our offering significantly.
We plan to do a sizeable upgrade to our site, offering, and product suite next year so this will likely be one of the last times we offer the sale for the current offerings.
We have added new finance themed Christmas Sweaters, Crypto, and Wall Street drip as well for the finance fans, traders, salespeople, Managing Directors, and more in your life.
We have a Lehman Brothers, American Psycho, Wolf of Wall Street, and Jerome Powell sweater for all holiday occasions.
Rough guidance is to get any orders in before December 14th to ensure delivery by Christmas.
USE THIS LINK FOR 20% OFF ALL ORDERS
"Choose the non-emotional response to any given situation and see how much easier your life becomes."
—Naval
I hope you all have a great Thanksgiving weekend and get to spend some time with your family and friends. I will be flannel clad enjoying some cigars, football, scotch, and down time.
Remember it’s a great time of the year to not only give to others, but to get a jump start in any improvements or new routines you want to implement into your schedule and personal life.
See you guys Monday for the fitness deep dive, check out the store for holiday gifts, and let us know if you come across any insane deals on gifts, kit, or more.
While we’re all for passing out by 2pm make sure yall stay safe if you’re getting lost in the sauce.
If you choose to drink and participate in extra curriculars this holiday season Never drink alcohol and drive.
Have a designated driver if you are going to drink.
Great read, as always. Looking forward to Monday’s post 🙏. Are you still planning on releasing the piece about top 10 macro analysis books?
Thanks and have a great weekend