Terror Attack Updates, 2024 Hedge Fund Performance
364: What's going on in the US, Markets Updates
Happy New Year everyone — hope you all enjoyed the holidays.
Today we’ve got a complete analysis of the terror attacks in the US with everything we know up until this point as well as a markets and crypto section. We’ve got hedge fund returns from 2024, some new crypto institutional updates, and other global news to cover as well.
Risk On will resume on Tuesday of next week.
Let’s get into it.
Terror Attack in New Orleans & Global Security
Disclaimer - I want to take a second to lay out some context in these discussions as we had the usual amount of trolls and haters on the most recent Instagram post detailing the attack in New Orleans yesterday. While it’s true the attacker was a US Citizen, that doesn’t negate the security threat posed by the disastrous foreign policy and Southern Border policy of the last administration.
I understand the tweet I shared might have been confusing given that fact but I stand by the fact the broader context of the tweet and the excerpt from Arb Letter are entirely relevant to the discussion and event that took place on the 1st of the year (DJ Shipley Former SEAL Team 6 Operator seemed to think so as well, guy probably has some experience with this topic I would think).
Critics like to play semantics games or straw man to try and support their political views as if pointing out that the attacker was a US Citizen is some sort of “gotcha” moment that belittles my overall point with yesterday’s post or that it means the Biden administration didn’t make our country much less safe. The border situation is a direct amplifier of the radical ideology spreading in the US. Terror cells are operating in the US composed of US Citizens AND illegals. There is overlap in domestic terror and foreign terror cells and operations.
The FBI itself has confirmed this fact.
Anyone regularly reading Arb Letter knows this and knows that we’ve been covering this threat for months, we also highlighted it in the last post of 2024 for 2025 predictions.
With current events race, culture, and religion are playing an increasing role in online discussions — and they should, as they are critical aspects of what’s going on. That’s a tough pill to swallow for some, but it’s fact you cannot ignore.
I’m not going to steer away from straightforward takes on these topics because of this fact — that would be a disservice to everyone who wants to understand what’s actually going on.
With that let’s get into the events of the 1st that read more like an episode of Homeland than the first day of the new year. Worth noting terror threats are something we have covered and warned about extensively for over a year now in Arb Letter and some of our paid posts on expectations for 2025.
On January 1, 2025, a terrorist attack in New Orleans' French Quarter left 15 dead and over 30 injured. The attacker, who we all learned was a U.S. Army veteran named Shamsud-Din Jabbar, drove a truck into a crowd and opened fire before being killed by local police.
Explosives were found in his vehicle and nearby. The FBI initially said there was no evidence this was a terror attack (classic) but quickly stepped that back. They also initially said this was a lone act, but then said they were looking for other individuals who had potentially placed IEDs in the area. After a short while authorities said they believe he acted alone, inspired by ISIS.
Jabbar was, according to online reports, a former IT professional that had worked with Deloitte and a Real Estate professional according to a now taken down Youtube video. By all accounts seemed like a normal guy up until a point.
Family has reportedly said he had disappeared for awhile and become a bit off.
The mosque Masjid Bilal in Texas where Jabbar was a member warned members in an official notice: "If anyone is contacted by the media, it is very important that you do not respond. If approached by the FBI, please refer to CAIR and ISGH[Islamic Society of Greater Houston]. It is crucial that we stay united".
You’d expect some degree of cooperation with the investigation given the seriousness of this — but no such luck. This is a major red flag. There are ISIS and terror cells inside the US and no doubt some located in Texas, and it’s important to note that CAIR has been accused of having connections to Islamic terror groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In 2014, the United Arab Emirates designated CAIR as a terrorist organization due to its alleged ties to the Muslim Brotherhood.
A similar incident occurred the same day in Las Vegas when a Tesla Cybertruck exploded outside the Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas, killing one person and injuring seven others. The truck, rented in Colorado (from the same company the F-150 in New Orleans was rented from Turo, a peer-to-peer app), was packed with fireworks, gasoline, and gas canisters connected to a detonation system.
Elon Musk clarified that the explosion was caused by the materials in the truck bed, not the vehicle itself and the Cybertruck held up pretty well.
The individual thought to have carried out this attack is Matthew A. Livelsberger. Master Sergeant Matthew A. Livelsberger, appears to have a served a Decorated Career in the U.S. Army, with him having been awarded with 5 Bronze Stars including one with Valor, a Meritorious Service Medal, 3 Afghanistan Campaign Medals with Campaign Star, alongside several other Ribbons and Awards that would be expected throughout his almost 20-Year Career (OSINTDefender).
Officials are reporting that a Desert Eagle handgun, an AR-15 style rifle (with no optic), an Iphone, a smartwatch, and military ID in his name were found in the vehicle.
This entire event stinks like dogshit lol.
Officials have announced that the explosion and explosives setup was uncharacteristic of someone with his experience which is apparent when you watch the video.
“The level of sophistication is not what we would expect from an individual with this type of military experience”
—ATF Special Agent Cooper
It’s being reported he shot himself in the head prior to the explosion. Why would he do that? Did someone shoot him and remotely drive the car to the explosion location as a set up? Did he panic and shoot himself instead of burning?
We also know now through open sourced intelligence online that the day after the event his safety phone number and photo were changed on his Signal account…..
Reports say his own family says he was a “big Trump supporter”.
Absolutely bizzare.
Bizzare when we factor in the shared details of him the New Orleans perp as well.
The latest update we have is that there is no ‘definitive link’ between the New Orleans attack and Las Vegas explosion according to the FBI. Taking that with less than a grain of salt. I pointed out on X that the probability of two US military members both striking the US in rental cars from the same company has got to be close to zero.
Here are some of the facts we have about these two events.
Both cars used in both events were rented from a service called Turo
Both perpetrators in question were former US Military and both served at Fort Bragg
The Airbnb where the New Orleans terrorist allegedly stayed at caught on fire this week
The New Orleans Police Superintendent said in an interview she had no clue that New Orleans had sidewalk barriers to defend against terror attacks utilizing vehicles
A bizzare walk through tour of Jabbar’s home was given to the NY Post — in the walk through (which is bizzare given the crime just took place), you can see lots of “evidence” that seems a bit too perfect and posed in my opinion
Texts the Vegas perpetrator sent to his for0mer girlfriend days before the event do not indicate or give the impression of someone who is about to kill themselves or blow themselves up but…..
Reports also indicate his wife broke up with him days before the explosion
Is it possible this dude in Vegas just lost his mind? Maybe.
Is it possible the New Orleans attacker actually did work completely alone and slipped past the FBI’s radar? Maybe.
Still odd that these attacks happen on the same day.
I want to stress — this is very likely not the last of these type of attacks in the US and the West, whether it’s these bizzare domestic ones or new ones carried out directly by militants who have entered the country through our loose borders. The big questions I have circulate around the bizzare string of coincidences linked between the two attackers and the fact that both men were US military members.
This screams psy op/false flag to me. It’s all just so odd — the FBI waffling on an explanation early on, then tampering with and trying to conceal the ISIS flag (something they choose NOT to do when it’s different flags), the NY Post reporter being granted access to the home (highly odd), the guns inside the Tesla in Las Vegas (a desert eagle? really lol), the backstory of the Vegas perpetrator, and the fact both attacks occurred on the same day with the same rental car company and they’re saying they are unrelated…..
Stay skeptical. We don’t know what the truth is right now.
A narrative may be getting planted in front of us. Good reminder that we have more info on both these individuals in 24 hours than we do on either Trump shooter. Look at those involved in the sphere of influence here and it’s obvious something fucking stinks. Hardly anyone trusts the agencies involved and for good reasons. Also fun fact — nearly 4 years later (this week) the FBI chooses to release “new” information about the January 6th pipe bomb incident asking for tips to help identify who is responsible.
Okay bro….
Remember — over the last several years the predominant narrative forced by intelligence agencies and the Biden admin has been that white males and domestic right groups are the #1 threat to the US.
If you’re in power looking to maintain that narrative the events that took place in New Orleans are not ideal for that narrative — the ones in Las Vegas are.
Let me know what yall think in the comments.
Other events that have taken place so far this year that you should be aware of:
On January 1, 2025, Payette Police arrested a suspect after discovering an improvised explosive device (IED) near a train car in Idaho — 40-year-old Brent Sharrai was arrested and charged with Possession of a Destructive Device after he was caught attempting to set off the IED. The device was safely neutralized, and no injuries were reported. Authorities are investigating the motive behind the placement of the IED.
A portion of I-85 closed on Thursday due to a reported bomb threat involving an 18-wheeler in Greenville County, South Carolina
Other geopolitical updates & UK Rape Scandal
South Korean investigators headed to Seoul this week in attempt to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol
A Russian Telegram channel has claimed that Bashar al Assad may have been poisoned, sparking online speculation about the fate of the Syrian dictator after he fled to Moscow following his downfall (Newsweek)
I would be remiss if I did not bring attention to one of the most disturbing updates out of the UK I have seen online in some time.
In the UK, organized groups known as "grooming gangs" (though they should be called rape gangs) of mostly Pakistani men have been involved in the sexual exploitation and assault of vulnerable individuals, particularly young white girls. These gangs often operate by establishing trust with their victims before subjecting them to abuse and using violence and blackmail to control their victims. Investigations have revealed that such activities have occurred in various towns and cities across the country.
I will not post specifics here as the testimony and reports emerging this week are truly sickening. In one instance reports indicate fathers who attempted to locate and rescue their own daughters were arrested.
If you want to read up on this you can do so on X where there are many threads on the subject and those responsible. Don’t bother googling it, you won’t see much. This has been intentionally censored and kept out of light by many people, who quite frankly deserve to rot in prison or worse.
Grooming gang activity in the UK has been reported since the early 1990s, with some of the first known cases involving young girls being exploited in towns like Rotherham. By the late 1990s and early 2000s, concerns grew as more evidence of abuse surfaced. Despite repeated reports to local authorities and police, significant action wasn’t taken until 2010, when the first major convictions were secured against offenders. Cases of this nature have continued to emerge over the years, highlighting the persistent and ongoing nature of the issue.
Authorities in the UK and politicians have rightfully faced recent criticism for their handling of these cases, with concerns about systemic failures in protecting victims and bringing perpetrators to justice surfacing en masse on platforms like X.
I’d go beyond bureaucracy or negligence here and say that based on what I’ve read this was the intentional facilitation of an assault on native women in Britain by foreign invaders written off because of the classic cop out of “we don’t want to be culturally insensitive”.
You read up on it and let me know what you think.
It’s fucking disgusting and adds to the plethora of issues the UK is dealing with recently in the face of feckless and disgraceful leadership.
Markets & Crypto
The new year is off to mixed results in financial markets. In early 2025, financial markets are off to a strong start, driven by optimism around technological growth and anticipated policy changes from the incoming Trump administration. U.S. stocks are climbing, with gains in tech and small-cap sectors, while the dollar remains strong against most currencies.
Bitcoin has rebounded to around $97,000, with analysts predicting a major bull run that could push it to $150,000 - $225,000 range (depending on who you listen to) by the end of the year.
Other cryptocurrencies like XRP, Ethereum, and Solana are also rising slightly, reflecting overall positive sentiment in the crypto market. Investors are hopeful for continued growth across both traditional and digital assets in 2025 under the Trump administration.
Galaxy Digital predicts that 5 countries will announce they have adopted Bitcoin as a reserve asset in 2025 (Bitcoin Magazine)
The IRS has delayed crypto tax reporting requirements until 2026
Apple, AAPL 0.00%↑ , has agreed to pay $95 million in cash to resolve a class-action lawsuit that alleged the company had obtained private communications and shared them with third-parties without consent through Siri (Unusual Whales)
China's 10-Year Note Yield is now below 1.60% for the first time in history (Kobeissi Letter)
Morgan Stanley's Crypto Expansion - Morgan Stanley's E-Trade is exploring plans to introduce direct cryptocurrency trading, driven by expectations of a more favorable regulatory climate under the Trump administration. If launched, E-Trade would become one of the largest traditional financial players to offer crypto trading, expanding competition with established digital asset exchanges.
Do Kwon Extradition - Do Kwon, Terraform Labs' co-founder, has been extradited to the U.S. from Montenegro to face fraud charges. He pleaded not guilty to accusations of misleading investors about the stability of TerraUSD, the stablecoin that collapsed in 2022. Kwon is charged with securities and wire fraud, among other offenses, following investor losses tied to the project's downfall
Neumora Therapeutics ($NMRA) saw its stock drop by over 80% today after announcing that its experimental depression drug, navacaprant, failed to show better results than a placebo in a critical Phase 3 trial. This significant setback has cast doubt on the company's drug development pipeline and future prospects.
Hedge Fund Performance
Hedge fund performance in 2024 was interesting to say the least with some ususal suspects and new entrants leading the pack.
DE Shaw, Bridgewater China, and Statar led the way. Bottom performers were struggling to outperform bonds or high yield savings accounts lol. All funds were substantially below Bitcoin’s 2024 return of roughly 120%.
Now there are caveats here as funds don’t necessarily need to outperform any given index (even though it’s fun to joke around).
Hedge funds are designed to achieve specific goals beyond simply outperforming broad market indices like the S&P 500 including:
1. Risk Management and Lower Volatility
Hedge funds often focus on risk-adjusted returns, meaning they aim to generate consistent returns while minimizing risk and volatility. While the S&P 500 may deliver higher returns in bullish markets, hedge funds seek to protect capital during downturns, offering smoother performance over time — this is worth noting instead of comparing a single year of returns.
2. Absolute Returns
Many hedge funds pursue absolute returns, aiming for positive performance regardless of market direction (important note). This contrasts with relative performance, where outperforming the S&P 500 might still mean losing money during market downturns. Hedge funds use strategies like short-selling, derivatives, and arbitrage to profit in all market conditions.
3. Diversification and Uncorrelated Strategies
Hedge funds often invest in non-traditional assets or use strategies that aren't directly correlated with the broader market. This diversification helps investors reduce overall portfolio risk, even if the fund’s return lags the S&P 500 during bull markets.
4. Tailored Investment Objectives
Some hedge funds specialize in niche markets, distressed assets, macroeconomic plays, or event-driven strategies. Their performance is benchmarked against different metrics, not just equity indices. For example, a global macro hedge fund might perform well during periods of economic uncertainty, offering a hedge against broader market losses.
5. Capital Preservation
Wealthy individuals and institutions often use hedge funds to preserve wealth rather than chase maximum growth. Hedge funds that consistently deliver moderate returns while avoiding significant drawdowns are attractive to these investors.
6. Access to Unique Opportunities
Hedge funds can engage in private deals, complex derivatives, and illiquid investments that aren't accessible to retail investors or traditional mutual funds. This access can provide value even if returns don't mirror the S&P 500’s performance.
7. Long-Term Outperformance
Hedge funds may underperform in certain years but outperform over longer cycles by avoiding major losses during market crashes. Over a 10- or 15-year period, their cumulative performance can often surpass the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis.
In summary, hedge funds prioritize risk management, diversification, and capital preservation, making them valuable components of an investment portfolio even if their headline returns don't always beat the S&P 500.
Some heavy content today — going to be a wild year and I will continue to ensure we cover everything relevant and breaking as it unfolds.
I will see you guys next week for a new episode of Risk On.
Enjoy the weekend.
Andy
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Favorite in the uk is when the courts also ban press from reporting on the “grooming gangs” as a social good to avoid racism…
It is sad that as Americans we can never trust the agencies that "head" our country. Our world is slowly becoming an "every man for himself" landscape and yet we still have people who refuse to believe or are blinded by the agendas put out there.