Navigating Ammo Shortages
227: Guns, Ammo, Gun Stocks/Investment Ideas
Morning everyone — someone commented recently that recent posts have been a bit depressing and I get this — I value your feedback and despite the deteriorating situations globally I want to provide some more educational/material that isn’t all doom and gloom + stuff that can actually help people.
There’s a reason they called me the “Perma Bear” on HBO’s show industry.
I’ll be the first to admit the negative news vortex can get tiring — it’s important to stay on top of all this stuff but we all need a break from time to time, so we will put a pin in the geopolitical updates for a few days.
So — let’s talk about what’s coming for the rest of the week.
Today’s post is going to be a deep dive into:
Gun and ammo Stocks (some I am looking at, where to make money)
The coming ammunition shortages (important)
American attitudes towards defense
The best sites and sources to obtain ammunition in this environment (what you can do now)
Thursday or Friday morning I will also send out my new book list of the top 20 geopolitical and internal relations books I am reading and recommend.
Guns and self defense are always a sensitive topics to write about. But with conflict and crime becoming more endemic around us and new wars popping up left and right I think an analysis of the current landscape around firearms, firearms stocks/investments, and the ammunition market makes sense.
If you don’t care about guns or ammo — we’ll still cover some of the ways to make money in companies/stocks that will be impacted by the current macro environment.
When we first heard about the events in Israel one of my first tweets was to prepare for incoming ammunition shortages.
Why?
Well it’s simple supply and demand. We have send absurd amounts of ammunition to Ukraine over the last 2 years and now Israel has opened a new front in the middle east. This will and already has put significant pressure on ammo supply in the US. I’ve had more and more former colleagues, friends, and family each out about purchasing their first firearm and batch of ammunition in the last month than ever before.
People are waking up.
If you’re unaware (and most probably are if they don’t shoot or own firearms) the last two weeks has seen the following updates in the ammo manufacturing market:
Lake City has reportedly cancelled all civilian orders of 5.56 (responsible for roughly 30% of the US 5.56 production)
Hornady had an ammo factory explosion (Hornady is a specialty ammo manufacturer)
A Czech conglomerate bought Federal, Remington, CCI, Speer (foreign companies buying companies that product ammunition for US citizens)
UTM stops selling to civilians
Popular calibers are soaring in price and dwindling in availability (9mm, .223. and 5.56)
For awhile I harped the importance of stockpiling ammunition among other prepper like assets and critics said I was being dramatic. They also said I was alarmist for saying we were fast approaching World War III.
Game Set Match on both of those predictions.
Today’s post isn’t just for gun nuts or those who are interested in self defense or striking it rich off gun and ammo stocks — I can promise even those who are unfamiliar with these topics will learn some useful in today’s guide.
You do not want to be put into a situation where you have to use to force to defend your loved ones or property and find yourself equipped with nothing but strong words and a butter knife.
If you stand against the proper administration of force — at least take a look at some of the trends that are playing out to see if you can make some money or save some money. In times of conflict ammunition is as important as gold or cash — if not more so.
There is good money to be made flipping ammunition (legally) and in holding equities with exposure to the demand we will see surge in the coming months as more and more people realize owning firearms and ammunition is table stakes in this new world we live.
This is one development you should not kick the can on. I urge all of you to think about this seriously — you do not want to find yourself in a position where you wish you took the proper steps to prepare to defend your life, your loved ones, your communities, and your property.
For new subscribers to Arb Letter I do deep dives like this 2X a week for our paid subs. The goal is to provide useful information in one place that is devoid of:
Mainstream influence and bias
Nonsense
Politically correct word salad
Let’s get it.
“Ammunition beats persuasion when you are looking for freedom”
—Will Rogers
“A man with a gun is a citizen. A man without a gun is a subject”
—Rep. Allen West
Firearms & Ammunition Overview
I want to start with a quick overview of the 2nd Amendment as context since many of the point we will cover today imply that A.) you have a thorough understanding of the 2nd Amendment and B.) you understand that there is a time and place for deadly force in the world we live in.
If you can’t come to terms with either or both of these points then this article is probably not for you — which is fine! But be warned.
The 2nd amendment is not for deer hunting or for sport shooting as many in the media and in the mainstream culture narrative purport — those two activities (hunting/sport) are frequently toted in anti gun arguments against firearms and laws that allow for certain features and characteristics of firearms and ease of access.