How realistic is nuclear war?

066: Deep dive on global nuclear capability and risks

Nuclear War

While markets continue to putter along and experts wait to debate whether the next rate hike will be 75 bps or 100 bps - I thought we could take a break on a boring summer monday and delve into a topic I am quite familiar with and one that is becoming more and more relevant as international competition and conflicts grow in the face of heightened nationalism, territorial disputes, and shifting economic landscapes.

For context - in undergraduate studies I chose to study international relations for a number of reasons.

The first, was that I was looking for a blend of history and applicable theory to apply to the world I saw around me, after all, in the post World War era the dynamic between major superpowers is only becoming more interesting by the week.

The focus of many of my courses and seminars was on terrorism and nuclear game theory, which have become central pieces of the way warfare is conducted in the post World War II age.

I focused extensively on deterrence and game theory on the global stage. The second reason I chose to study this area is that as the world develops on the modern stage, I know we will see many of the major superpowers vying for the position of global hegemon - this inevitably leads to armed conflict.

China and Russia with substantial collections of nuclear arms are all positioning themselves to take over the frontrunner slot from the United States as the dominant global force.

There is a quote from the Fallout Video Game Series, a post apocalyptic game in which survivors must trudge through a nuclear wasteland trying to survive: War, war never changes. I suppose this is true to the extent it’s always brutal, wanton, and merciless.

But the way wars are fought has changed drastically over the years, and many Americans are fortunate enough to have never seen the evil impacts of large-scale war.

On battlefields combatants were once required to maim or kill their enemies and frequently saw the enemy before them before engaging.

Nowadays, entire cities and metropolitan areas can be vaporized in seconds with buttons clicked 5,000+ miles away, either by mistake or on purpose.

As the war in Ukraine heats up and we see more territorial aggression in Southeast Asia from China in regards to Taiwan, I thought it would make sense to do a deep dive to educate everyone on where the world stands on nuclear capability. What are the risks, chances, and instances where something could happen.

I will dive into how you can think about this possibility and what you can do if this dark technology were ever to be used again. This isn’t meant to be fear mongering piece but a practical summary with context, and a few pointers for what your limited options are in the event we become doomed.

There are no winners in nuclear war and it poses one of the most serious threats to humanities survival on this planet.

The nuclear arms race is like two sworn enemies standing waist deep in gasoline, one with three matches, the other with five.

-Carl Sagan