Home Stretch to 2024
236: Ireland Riots, Stocks Pump, Deal Sled Plug
Good morning folks - got a big week coming up.
Everyone’s probably still shaking off the Thanksgiving hangover, lounging on the couch, and if you’re an over achiever maybe you opened your work inbox once today.
Todays post is free for all subscribers with some high level global news updates and market developments to keep track of for the week.
Tomorrow will be a spicy post on the current state of the US and world covering many of the concerning developments regarding government corruption, censorship, domestic unrest stemming from the Israeli Palestinian conflict, and more.
This won’t be one you want to miss so if you enjoy being up to date with what’s actually going on in the world instead of regurgitating mainstream drivel I suggest you upgrade to receive and read. Let me add — the information covered tomorrow is going to be critical in the months to come if you live in the US, UK, or other western nations.
Thursday will be our 2023 holiday gift guide — these are usually well received and help people to get their shopping done quickly and efficiently online instead of spending time in public and going to crowded places like malls to overspend, be around nasty normies, and waste time.
Jay Butler Sale
It’s that time of the year some of our favorite brands and long time partners in the financial media space are running some solid deals to get in the holiday spirit. Jay Butler is a loafer brand we’ve worked with before — they’re also one of the longest partners for Arbitrage Andy on instagram.
Jay Butler has a great range of deal sleds and loafers that provide a solid overall design, longevity, and flexibility in terms of how you can style them.
They’re also at a mid range price point allowing you to grab a few pairs in different colors and styles depending on what you like — I’m a fan of their brown with the gold bit and the tassel navy style. Jay Butler has offered a 20% discount on all styles through the end of tomorrow (11/28). Make sure to check out the site before then if you’re in the market.
I’ve worn these on the streets of NY, on gravel roads in the Hamptons, in Europe, and jumped into the ocean with them. You can’t find many more durable loafers that last a long time.
If you’re feeling baller they also have pairs of alligator and ostrich sleds — I own the gator bois and can attest they fit great and give off Miami 1980’s size lord vibes. You can fin the discount code below as well as a loaded hyperlink to their store. If you’re looking for a versatile and durable pair of sleds for 2024 these are a great choice without destroying your bank account.
Discount code:
JBBF2021 for 20% off sitewide
SHOP HERE
Global Markets
Stocks have had their best month in nearly a year as investor are continuously confused by the pre recession phase we seemed to be in that defies all logic by pumping higher and higher. Analysts are eagerly awaiting earnings on the following companies this week to include a few:
ZS 0.00%↑ (Zscaler Inc.)
KEP 0.00%↑ ( Korea Electric Power Corp)
SID 0.00%↑ (National Steel Company)
QD 0.00%↑ (Qudian Inc.)
SDRL 0.00%↑ (Seadrill Limited)
TAIT 0.00%↑ (Taitron Components International)
JP Morgan has claimed that Spot Bitcoin ETFs could put 'severe downward pressure on bitcoin price' — sounds like they just want our coins to be honest
Russia has added the spokesman of $META, which owns Facebook and Instagram, to a wanted list, per AP (Unusual Whales)
Nigerian Police have arrested a politician who laundered stolen capital through a Crypto Exchange
Money-market fund assets have supposedly risen to all-time high levels, according to Bloomberg.
Between Nov. 12 and 18, several banks filed to close branch locations, with PNC Bank with the most filings, according to data from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Pittsburgh-based PNC Bank filed for 19 branch closures—five in Pennsylvania, four in Illinois, three in Texas, two each in Alabama and New Jersey, and one each in Indiana, Ohio, and Florida (ZeroHedge)
Deutsche Bank sees the S&P 500 gaining more than 11% and reaching a record next year (CNBC)
US Oct New Home Sales -5.6% To 679K; Consensus 725.0K
Buy Now Pay Later spending soars 20% compared to last year on Black Friday (Kobeissi Letter)
Bloomberg Media CEO Scott Havens is leaving to become President of the NY Mets (@alexbruell)
At the moment I am sitting on my hands when it comes to markets — I have some cyclical gun/ammo stock bets for January but besides that I am not doing much.
Crypto is in a weird waiting period before potential ETF approvals and it will be interesting to see how the holidays further impacts consumer spending and activity in regards to crypto and stock retail volumes/sales.
At the moment my largest long term holds are:
Options plays open right now:
POWW 0.00%↑ January Calls
OLN 0.00%↑ January/February Calls
SWBI 0.00%↑ January Calls
Many will need to cash out to afford basic life necessities.
I think the next month or so will be a crunch for many and in my humble opinion the best thing to do is hunker down, stack cash, and wait to see how things shape up at the beginning of the new year.
While we will cover it extensively tomorrow — 2024 is set to be a massively pivotal year on many fronts.
"There is nothing encouraging on the horizon"
- Dallas Fed respondent
Global News
The world is continuing to see right wing movements gain momentum — first was Argentina, then the backlash to the stabbings in Ireland, and the rare victory by the right wing party, Geert Wilders has caused quite a seismic shift in the European political scene by guiding his party to a clear triumph in the general elections of the Netherlands.
I expect this trend to continue as more and more leaders and people wake up to the toxic reality that is far left woke globalism (more on this tomorrow).
2020 Election fraud cases have been filed in New Jersey, Connecticut, Arizona, and Iowa
NY retailers lost nearly $4.4 billion due to various organized shoplifting rings in 2022
Thousands of Pro-Palestine protesters were chanting for a ceasefire and shut down the Manhattan Bridge this weekend causing traffic jams
The UK had recorded the "first human case" of new swine flu variant
Israeli Channel 14 has reported: “Elon Musk said he wants to help rebuild Gaza after the war.”
French society is "at risk of tipping over" after the murder of teenager in Crépol, said govt spokesperson Olivier Véran (Le Figaro)
South Korea has reportedly detected increased activity at the DMZ
This week’s NBC News poll had a wild result: Trump led Biden among voters younger than 35, 46 percent to 42 percent (Politico)
China has started military exercises along its border with Myanmar, with no end date being given for the operation, per Bloomberg (Unusual Whales).
Riots in Ireland
Ireland is dealing with elevated levels of social unrest and strife after a number of stabbings in the country over the last week.
The riots that took in place in Ireland after the stabbing of children by an Algerian immigrant have ignited tensions between high profile Irish figures and the powers that be. This time it’s Conor McGregor who, as of yesterday is now being investigated for “hate speech” online. We will expand on this issue and others in tomorrow’s deep dive.
A frightening development in the apparent evolution to full blown “1984” that Orwell depicted. Ireland, like many other countries is starting to see the consequences of unfettered and in some cases deliberate forced migration from countries that have cultures who have little in common with native irish people.
We are seeing the same phenomena play out in the US with pro Hamas groups that are openly demonstrating and protesting against the United States. Countries and people are realizing that you can’t just mix wildly different cultures and ideologies and expect everyone to get along — there needs to be a degree of assimilation that occurs — a willingness to adopt a nation’s moral, ethical, and social guidelines. When this doesn’t happen you get conflict and violence as we are seeing.
The goal isn’t equity or equality — the goal of many that choose to firmly stand on their own ideologies and codes is to replace the incumbent system and people all together.
Years ago this viewpoint would be considered offensive, but now more and more people are realizing it’s pretty straightforward. That won’t stop governments like the Irish from implementing hate speech bills to try and muzzle anyone speaking out against unchecked and detrimental forced migration.
“We are restricting freedom but we’re doing it for the common good…Yes you have rights, but they are restricted for the common good.”
—Ireland’s Green Party Sen. Pauline O'Reilly
New Covid?
Well folks it didn’t take long for a new mystery virus to emerge in China and coincidently this one is also appearing right as the 2024 election cycle heats up — will be fortunate enough to have our entire voting system overhauled with sketchy mail in ballots again?!
Time will tell.
China’s hospitals have recently been flooded with cases of respiratory illnesses and sick children complaining of pneumonia-like symptoms, leading to increased scrutiny and preventative calls from the World Health Organisation (WHO) (Independant UK).
The weekend announcement from the Chinese Health Ministry attributed the increase in cases to a convergence of familiar pathogens rather than the emergence of any new viruses. Concerns about a potential new outbreak heightened as the nation prepared for its initial winter post the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions.
If you’ve read any of the Arb Letter deep dives on politics you know I fully expect some type of major disruption ahead of the 2024 Presidential election in the US — either another virus of some type, blackouts, power grid failures, the internet “failing”, or severe civil unrest.
We will expand on this in tomorrow’s post but it’s obvious with the stakes so high for the current regime to retain power — nothing’s out of question to manipulate the public’s emotions, sentiment, and ability to vote/express dissenting opinions.
Quick update today - we’ll be back tomorrow with a spicy deep dive covering politics, the 2024 election, and the geopolitical trends taking place around the world.
I’d consider tomorrow’s post table stakes for anyone concerned about the state of global affairs and the current issues we are seeing within the United States that will influence which party retains or gains power in the next election.
The Christmas Gift Guide for 2023 will come out next Friday or Tuesday complete with a full range of gifts for men and women. You can find the past lists below for some inspiration but the next one launching will contain all the top gifts for 2023.
Arbitrage Andy Holiday Gift List 2020
Arbitrage Andy Holiday Gift List 2021
Arbitrage Andy Holiday Gift List 2022
Another bomb Andy!