Don't Be a Part of the Clueless Majority
329: Crypto, Money, Success, and Geopolitics
Happy Tuesday lords. We are fast approaching election day in the US as markets move higher.
Quite a bit to catch up on. We’re awaiting a response from Israel on Iran in the Middle East, there are reports China is preparing for war, crypto seems to be setting up for a biblical rally with aggressive buying from institutions, and Donald Trump is doing photo ops at McDonald’s.
As I have said before your best weapon to drive success financially, socially, and personally is information.
Many of the themes and predictions we have covered in Arb Letter over the course of the last 2 years are playing out in the current macro and social environment including but not limited to:
The attempts on Donald Trump’s life
Growing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East
Terror plots and activity within the US and other nations in Europe
Mass censorship campaigns from big tech and US government agencies
Crypto price action, notably Bitcoin’s continued climb ahead of the election
Today we’re going to expand on second order effects for these calls and cover a handful of major themes important to your financial interests, global relations, and political outcomes in the US and around the world. We will talk through major updates and then cover the essential developments you need to be aware of.
I was at a social event recently and had some great conversations with friends and strangers alike. People are definitely beginning to wake up to some extent, I was surprised at some of the takes I heard where I was otherwise expecting some normie conversations to take place.
We are gearing up for an election that will have far reaching impacts for people within the US and around the world. Many are unaware at just how pivotal these events will be for our way of life and just how much change we may see in a short amount of time.
“Our plutocracy, whether the hedge fund managers in Greenwich, Connecticut, or the Internet moguls in Palo Alto, now lives like the British did in colonial India: ruling the place but not of it. If one can afford private security, public safety is of no concern; to the person fortunate enough to own a Gulfstream jet, crumbling bridges cause less apprehension, and viable public transportation doesn’t even compute. With private doctors on call and a chartered plane to get to the Mayo Clinic, why worry about Medicare?”
― Mike Lofgren
Disruptive Events & Security Updates
As we approach election day in two weeks I want to harp on my warnings from the past 6 months AGAIN. Seriously, if one of these goes down I don’t want their to be any confusion about us blatantly warning about them. I think the likelihood is incredibly high, especially given Trump’s apparent momentum into voting day. my money is on a cyber incident or a terror attack.
Election fuckery is a guarantee. Who is involved and how it goes down is anyone’s guess.
On top of domestic issues we have a potential Iranian response to Israeli counterattacks following the missile barrage earlier this month. According to OSINT Defender on X: According to Channel 14; in addition to Oil Facilities, Nuclear Sites, Military Bases and Government Buildings, the Homes of Senior Iranian Officials have likely been added to the potential Target List for an Israeli Retaliatory Strike. Retaliation by Iran could take the form of cyber or terror related incidents.
The border poses another issue — remember that an election day terror plot in the U.S. was thwarted when Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, an Afghan national in Oklahoma, was arrested. Tawhedi, influenced by ISIS, planned a violent attack using AK-47 rifles and ammunition. He and a juvenile accomplice acquired the weapons through an undercover operation.
The FBI disrupted the plot before it could be carried out, citing it as a significant example of the ongoing threat posed by ISIS and its affiliates to national security.
Time to be on high alert as we approach the election.
What you need to be aware of:
FBI investigations conducted as recently as August 2024 assess that cyber actors from various groups they’ve observed are likely backed by Iran
The FBI and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said they have “no information suggesting cyber activity against U.S. election infrastructure” that has “compromised the integrity of voter registration information, prevented an eligible voter from casting a ballot, impacted the integrity of any ballots cast, or disrupted the ability to count votes or transmit unofficial election results in a timely manner” (ZeroHedge). However, the two agencies cautioned that foreign adversaries may continue to spread "false or misleading narratives" in an attempt to influence the election or erode public confidence in America's election systems and processes. They specifically highlighted the risks posed by election-related content generated by artificial intelligence (AI), which has made it easier for malicious or foreign actors to develop more sophisticated strategies aimed at swaying the election.
Remember — the DOD updated Directive 5240.01 last week which authorizes the government to use lethal force against civilians.
Saw a big influx of subscribers to our 2024 Prepping Mega Guide yesterday afternoon likely due to the news re: cyber threats. Good reminder that NOW is the time to get what you need, not when shit hits the fan. Additionally for my 2nd amendment kings. Winchester Ammunition had the following to say on October 9th in case you missed it:
To all Winchester Ammunition Customers, due to the continuing cost of inputs for manufacturing ammunition it is necessary to increase ammunition prices for all shipments including backorders beginning January 1st 2025. Ammunition will be subject to the increase listed below:
All ammunition products +5-10%
Don’t wait to get squared away. Pressure from major conflicts globally and any renewed domestic unrest or government demand can spike ammo prices and make it unaffordable to many on a tight budget.
This goes for all preps — med kits, tourniquets, spare parts, and household items you might need if we all find ourselves hunkering down for a bit. Better to be prepared for the next 6 months then scramble like the general public if something pops off.
Crypto & US Market Opportunities
While markets seem to be cooling off a bit ahead of open today — crypto has gone on a nice little tear. Gold ($2,746) and Silver ($34.50) are ripping like we are headed for end times and crypto markets are coiled for further expansion past ATHs. Unfortunately rates are spiking despite the Fed cut, impacting a wide range of industries and not helping anyone looking to borrow.
The Fed is losing their fight.
This is the perfect environment for someone who has followed our basic approach to hedging for uncertainty and choosing hard assets immune to devaluation of currency and stubborn inflation.
If you’ve got a precious metals allocation, some BTC/ETH, large cap stocks, and ideally some real estate, you’re in a great spot. Bonus points if you locked in some 20 years for fat yield. If Kamala wins we are going to have bigger issues than markets. If Trump wins we could literally pump to Valhalla.
That will not be a rally to miss, lest you become a cricket eater.