Crypto Surges, Battle of Donbass Rages
042: Ukraine Update, Top performing Alt Coins
Quick story - the other day I was at Whole Foods. If you’re looking for arb in these hard times, Whole Foods actually has cheaper prices than most regular grocery stores in the city. Go Figure. Anyways, as I approached the split checkout line (One for self checkout and one for regular) a man in front of me was next. The TV above the line normally tells you immediately which # self checkout is ready with a robotic female voice. I was in a hurry and getting impatient, and I notice that two different self check out stations are now empty off to the left but the machine doesn’t register it for some reason and remains silent.
I wait 10 seconds and the guy in front of me still doesn’t move. I poke him on the back and gesture to the two open stations and he looks but then looks at me and points up at the screen indicating he is still waiting for the computer to tell him what to do. I said hey man there are two open right there go ahead and he still wouldn’t budge backing up the entire line and staring up at the screen. It was maddening, so I just walked around him. I thought that interaction was representative of many of the dynamics and phenomenon we’ve seen in the last year and a half. Blind faith, no questions asked.
Oh and happy 420 to my rebelution loving astronauts. Will be interesting to see if Elon does something fucky today. Finally dee herb cumaround.
MARKETS & CRYPTO
U.S. futures were higher, reversing earlier lower levels, as a decent rally in Treasuries signaled potential easing concerns over inflation and Federal Reserve rate-hike predictions for 2022. US Dollar is down slightly on the month, gold and metals saw a slight surge over the last several day but have softened in the last 48 hours. Crypto has moved back up with Bitcoin surpassing $42,000 this morning. I remain cautiously optimistic on a continued pump. My eyes are on the Nasdaq today after a NFLX slaughter AH.
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U.S. 10-year real yields shifted positive for the first time since March 2020, signaling a potential return to the pre pandemic levels
This week, U.S government agencies warned of more North Korean cyberattacks following April’s Ronin Hack.
“Tribalism” surrounding bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is what is holding back the entire market, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said recently, along with claims that the Ripple Lawsuit is going well. Hmm. Not sure I buy that lol.
Twitter (TWTR) - Get Twitter, Inc. Report shares moved higher again in pre-market trading after billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped yet another hint that he plans to take his $43 billion takeover bid for the social media group directly to investors (The Street).
Netflix (NFLX) shares god dumped by more than 25% on Tuesday after the company reported a loss of roughly 200,000 subscribers 1Q22. Seems the Ukraine conflict and waning Pandemic tailwinds are a huge part of the slowdown. Could it be the shit content too?
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde will discuss global economy at the IMF event this Thursday
TSLA moved higher Wednesday morning, following Tuesday's 2.5% climb. They will report quarterly results Wednesday.
Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptos traded higher on Tuesday as bearish sentiment over the past week appears to be fading quickly, though by most on chain metrics it appears retail is still very much missing from the equation.
Most alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) outperformed bitcoin, suggesting a greater appetite for risk among traders. For example, THORChain's RUNE token rallied by 11% over the past 24 hours, compared with a 2% rise in BTC over the same period. Meanwhile, decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens such as AAVE and EOS rose more than 7% on Tuesday (Coindesk)
Crypto adoption continues to accelerate with Australia’s first spot bitcoin ETF launching this week.
LUNA is a project I would like to allocate more funds to soon. Terra’s LUNA surges 11% as UST becomes third-largest stablecoin: Terra’s LUNA outperformed the wider crypto market, rising by as much as 11% over the past 24 hours. Remeber the founder of LUNA, Do Kwon has been buying MASSIVE clips of Bitcoin as a reserve for the Stablecoin.
Additionally I purchased more MATIC, LINK, and ETH over the last several days.
MARKET SENTIMENT
“Our revenue growth has slowed considerably,” the company wrote in a letter to shareholders Tuesday. “Streaming is winning over linear, as we predicted, and Netflix titles are very popular globally. However, our relatively high household penetration — when including the large number of households sharing accounts — combined with competition, is creating revenue growth headwinds.” (CNBC)
"Despite an additional two months of sideways consolidation, a large proportion of the market appears unwilling to spend and sell their coins, even if their coins are held at a loss," Glassnode wrote in a blog post. That suggests price-insensitive traders hold much of bitcoin's supply above the $40,000 price level.
GLOBAL NEWS
The world continues to wearily eye the growing conflict in Ukraine. There seems to be no intention by the Russians to stop the fighting or ease up on their territorial ambitions which will surely continue to hamper macro economic outlooks and supply chains. Outside that the world continues to watch several high profile institution/elites vs. individual battles play out in the form of the Elon Musk attempted buy out of twitter, a Julian Assange extradition, and several current and future elections.
A ruling by a US federal judge has put the government’s transportation mask mandate on hold for air travelers
French President Emmanuel Macron and his challenger Marine Le Pen face off Wednesday
Russia has deployed up to 20,000 mercenaries from Syria, Libya and elsewhere in its new offensive in Ukraine’s Donbas region, sent into battle with no heavy equipment or armored vehicles, according to a European official (The Guardian).
As fighting in Ukraine shifts focus in the East near Donbass and South in Mariupol (Looks like Stalingrad 2.0) fighting has intensified and world leaders have re-evaluated the situation as Putin seems to blatantly double down on his intentions. Heavy fighting plagues the City of Mariupol as the industrial/metal working/seaport area of the city, known as Azovstal, barely holds on for life. Ukrainian civilians and soldiers are stuck there, running out of ammunition and supplies as Russian forces litter the surrounding streets and rubble.
The commander of the last remaining Ukrainian troops holding the besieged city of Mariupol has said that his forces are outnumbered and may only have hours to live.
Maj. Serhiy Volyna said there were about 500 wounded troops and many civilians with them at the Azovstal steel plant, which has become the last stand for Ukrainians in the port city against Russia’s advance.
What we’ve seen is perhaps a strategic re-organization of Putin’s troops and Armor in select places along the Eastern front of Ukraine. No doubt this makes re-supply efforts and air raids more feasible as it is closer to Russian territory.
The sprawling steel plant in Mariupol covers over 4 square miles and includes a network of tunnels. Reuters, citing the Mariupol city council, reports more than 1,000 civilians and Ukrainian troops are in the mill. According to Russian estimates, the plant holds a few thousand Ukrainian troops. Fighting is sure to be bloody and close quartered as the situation unfolds in the coming days. So far western leaders have done and said little about helping in the fight for Mariupol specifically (USA Today).
Wishing everyone a profitable week. Make sure you find some time to work out as I think most of us are carrying heavier mental burdens and just general fatigue with the state of things. Gotta take care of yourself first to ensure you can trade, plan, and build efficiently lords.
Talk Friday or Saturday morning.
SHOP LEHMAN BROTHER MERCH
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*DISCLAIMER - None of this is financial advice, it is important that you do your own research and make your own investment decisions. I am a former trader and currently work within sales/financial technology/brand building/e comm.
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