ARB Letter - Are we in a bubble?
006 - Cannabis, China, and Tapering
EXOTIC MARKET INTELLIGENCE.
Friday, September 3rd 2021
MARKETS
Happy Friday yall. Crypto is looking elite af, equity markets continuing to pump hard. Winter is coming though. Take profit, hedge, and don’t forget to slam 17 Tequila Sodas for me tonight while we all bask in these god tier gains. Mr. Lahey agrees.
Apple Inc. shares closed at a record high Thursday and delays controversial plan to scan iPhones for child exploitation images
Didi (DIDI) rallied 4.3% in the premarket on rumors Beijing will take a stake or bring the company under state control - more on China Monday
NFLX has ended up in 14 of the last 15 trading sessions
Aurora Cannabis (ACB) – Recently upgraded to “hold” from “underperform” at Jefferies, which cited several factors including valuation.
Who’s got the herb when I’m dry? August Payrolls 235K, Exp. 725K - yikes
U.S. stock futures rose higher and the 10-year Treasury yield dipped after the government’s monthly employment report was a massive L
Bitcoin BTC currently sits at $50,792 USD and Ethereum ETH sits at $3,957 USD - this is a massive bull pump with alt coins like SOL, ADA, and LINK following suit
ETH has been an absolute fucking best this year Cryptocurrencies now recognized under commercial law in Texas
The Federal Reserve has bought nearly $120bn of bonds each month throughout the pandemic to boost economic activity - lmao
The U.S. Federal Reserve will likely begin the tapering of its asset purchases in November said former Federal Reserve official Dennis Lockhart said on Thursday
UBS staff who don't want to get vaccinated will be allowed to work from home.
Hurricane IDA pounded the Northeast flooding parts of Manhattan, Brooklyn, New Jersey, and other Tri State mainways leaving thousands of cars deserted or swamped. Insurance bout to be a cluster fest. 44 are reported dead.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz is bearish af on this continued all asset bull run
On Thursday, Cardano soared to a record high above $3, bringing its year-to-date gains to more than 1,600%. Meanwhile, Solana is up more than 7,000% year-to-date as of Thursday, according to data from Coinmarketcap.
"The share of alt-coins looks rather elevated by historical standards and in our opinion it is more likely to be a reflection of froth and retail investor 'mania' rather than a reflection of a structural uptrend," JPMorgan concluded. Sounds to me like JP Morgan is pissed they missed the pump again. They’ve done the same on BTC before (Business Insider)
NFT Update
Alright guys I am officially bag-holding my BASTARD GAN PUNK V2 #9132. Seems NFT markets softened as traders moved from NFTs into ETH in the last several days. I will hold this long term as I am still bullish on the space. More to come.
EXOTIC NEWS
The US State Department estimates it left behind the majority of Afghan interpreters and others who applied for visas to flee Afghanistan. This includes many people who actively aided us in the fight against the Taliban.
Some of these brave Afghans performed high level and critical work with the US Government, some even going as far as to help rescue Biden from snowstorms in Afghanistan.
According to the WallStreet Journal, Thirteen years ago, Afghan interpreter Mohammed helped rescue then-Sen. Joe Biden and two other senators stranded in a remote Afghanistan valley after their helicopter was forced to land in a snowstorm. Now, Mohammed is asking President Biden to save him. Seems fair.
“Hello Mr. President: Save me and my family,” Mohammed, who asked not to use his full name while in hiding, told The Wall Street Journal as the last Americans flew out of Kabul on Monday. “Don’t forget me here.” Gut wrenching shit man.
China's armed forces can supposedly "paralyse" Taiwan's defences and are able to fully monitor its deployments, the island's defence ministry said, offering a stark assessment of the rising threat posed by its giant neighbor (Reuters). Seems to me that on the heels of our embarrassing regional loss in Afghanistan,
China is starting to flex some more of their muscle more openly abroad. Sharks smell blood and weak leadership. I think it’s vital to understand China’s transformation in regards to tech, culture, and nationalism as we enter 2021, given how aggressive and Anti -West these changes and shifts are. Stakes are very high.
As Taliban combatants picked through the spoils of war, we have seen America’s friends around the globe were left to ruminate on what those jettisoned Black Hawks, Humvees, and fighter jets signified for their own dependence on Washington—perhaps none more so than Taiwan. Over recent months, it has borne the brunt of increasingly aggressive behavior from Beijing, which considers the self-governing island a breakaway province to be eventually reunited with the mainland—by force if necessary.
In July, Chinese strongman President Xi Jinping used the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party to reassert his commitment to bring Taiwan back into the fold and “smash” any notion of Taiwanese independence (TIME).
I would bet that we see some sort of escalated conflict in Taiwan before 2022 as China looks to expand regional influence in South Asia and the Pacific.
AsI mentioned we will do a deep dive on China soon. Hope everyone has a relaxing holiday weekend - don’t forget to get some push ups in if you are planning on deleting IPAs through Monday EOD. I’ll be working on the weekend like usual.
For more, check out the Arbitrage Andy (Instagram, Twitter, Merch Store).
Just simply amazing