The Crypto Dip You Wanted
363: Silicon Valley H-1B Debate & Year End Alpha
Happy Friday lords.
I hope everyone had a great Christmas and is enjoying the holiday season. The next couple days before New Year’s is always in limbo, some are off until the new year, others are working some days, and hardos are grinding straight into the new year.
Because schedules are mixed we will send today’s post out and then our official 2025 Preview of Markets, Society, and Geopolitics on the 30th (the last post of 2024) for paid subs.
Risk On will resume New Year’s week.
Today we’re going to cover some pretty interesting topics including a large political discussion that broke out over Christmas week. We’re also going to cover market action this week and crypto. Crypto is particularly interesting right now as some folks are getting bored and frustrated.
This is generally a good time to go shopping.
Crypto markets heated up in 2024, and if you’ve been on the sidelines, the window to scale in might be narrowing if you want to squeeze juice out of this bull run.
Institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs are surging, with BlackRock and Fidelity leading the charge, signaling that the big players are quietly positioning for the next leg up. Just this month, nearly $600 million in inflows hit spot Bitcoin ETFs – a level of demand we haven’t seen since the initial wave of excitement post-approval. On top of that, the incoming Trump administration is stirring optimism across the space, with rumors of pro-crypto advisors stepping into key roles and the potential for a more favorable regulatory environment.
After years of crackdowns, scams, and uncertainty, the tide may finally be turning and the stars might be aligning with the Trump admin.
Still — the equity markets and crypto are tough to predict right now, the Fed is going to deal with stubborn inflation in 2025, and many are questioning how much fuel might be left in the tank until we see a bigger reversal.
Let’s cover some market updates and then we will get into global news and the intense debate on immigration and foreign job roles that is playing out on X and online this week. There is some excellent content.
Markets & Crypto
Stock Market Highlights – yesterday and this week
Yesterday:
Markets: The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones saw slight declines, with tech stocks like Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla all experiencing small drops.
Corporate News:
Uber’s shares dipped after its acquisition of Foodpanda was blocked in Taiwan.
American Airlines briefly grounded flights due to technical issues but resumed quickly.
MicroStrategy’s stock fell after announcing plans to raise funds for more cryptocurrency purchases.
Netflix revealed it will release Beyoncé’s halftime performance as a standalone feature.
Economy: Unemployment claims rose to their highest level in three years, signaling potential labor market softening. This is something we have kept tab on now for some time and it’s obvious the labor market was made to appear stronger than it really was during the Biden administration ‘
This Week:
Overall Performance: Major indices have shown strong year-to-date gains, with the S&P 500 up around 24% and the Dow up about 14%.
Economic Data: Consumer confidence weakened more than expected, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures.
Earnings: Few earnings reports were released this week, but the upcoming earnings season will kick off mid-January, starting with major banks.
Holiday Impact: Markets operated on a lighter schedule due to early closures on Christmas Eve and a full closure on Christmas Day.
Japan has rejected a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve proposal, citing volatility, lack of info, and legal concerns
Crypto is in a typical holiday lull right now. Bitcoin is hanging out around 96,000, ETH has cooled off again and alts are a bit sold off. Some higher quality alts are still at good levels despite the sell off in Bitcoin which suggest that alt season may await us in 2025.
Remember we have end of year selling, taxes approaching, and reduced in-office crowds. Most people are on auto pilot and enjoying time off or decompressing.
So the question stands — is it time to scale into crypto?